Down, Yet Vaguely Happy

These days, however, Satyabir is only working the farm along with his two sons. The factory has run out of cash since the government invalidated Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes. The loss of income has several consequences바카라�without Satyabir바카라�s Rs 400 daily wage, the family worries about long-term goals like children바카라�s hig­her education, and immediate concerns such as how to hire farm labour. There바카라�s still time to sow the next rabi season crop, but it바카라�s running out fast: wheat must be planted within the next week, as the rabi sowing season ends on November 30.

바카라�I can sow in early December too, but after my children stood in line at the bank for two-three days, they managed to get a Rs 2,000 note. If we had got Rs 100 notes, our problems would be solved. Suppose I want to buy something worth Rs 500, I can바카라�t, because nobody has change for Rs 2000,바카라� he complains. So, Satyabir and his family is cutting down on every expense, including food and travel, just so that they can complete the sowing of wheat.

Satyabir supports the Centre바카라�s decision to demonetise, as he believes it has cut the wealthy down to size. His loss of inc­ome has not been so intense, so far, as to make him question the rationale, as many economists have, behind suddenly wiping out 85 per cent of currency in circulation. 바카라�Rich people lost their entire ill-gotten wealth thanks to Modi바카라�s scheme. They바카라�re throwing their cash into rivers,바카라� he says. Satyabir blames the wealthy and Uttar Pra­desh바카라�s flawed policies for his woes. 바카라�Sixty per cent of Indians are very rich,바카라� he believes. 바카라�I see them daily in industrial areas바카라�factory owners with big cars and huge houses,바카라� he says. 바카라�The UP government has weak labour laws, so we work without contracts. Else, we too would have benefits like provident fund, like workers in Delhi.바카라�

Ever since demonetisation, rural UP is abuzz with economic policy debates. The rabi sowing has slowed down, and the poo­rest here바카라�the landless labourer and petty merchant바카라�is feeling the pinch since cash has virtually disappeared from rural areas. Demonetisation will test the farmer바카라�s mettle and reveal his capacity to bear a financial shock. Farmers are forced to 바카라�buy바카라� four hundred-rupee notes for every Rs 500 note from a thriving black market. Small farmers and the poor predominate among those lining up outside banks, desperate to deposit, exchange or withdraw cash. Queues before banks smudge the countryside between Delhi and rural Eta­­wah, a 400-km stretch with Agra as its biggest agricultural, trading and industrial hub.

So severe is the cash crunch that grain mandi managers of western UP met in Bul­andshahr this week and decided not to reopen until the currency crisis blows over. So, Dabali바카라�s farmers are waiting, some to sell their ripe produce, others to buy seeds and fertilisers, still others to receive payments or hire labourers for the rabi sowing. Even where Dabali바카라�s half-sown fields look lush, a probing question or two is revelatory: This year, a farmer who has planted his crop is struggling to find cash for fertiliser, and one whose field is ready for sowing is standing in a queue before a bank, hoping to get cash for seeds. 바카라�Where all looks well, the farmers have planted last year바카라�s seeds, which give lower yields. What바카라�s happening to rabi sowing since demonetisation might cost the BJP dearly in UP polls,바카라� says Pushpendra Singh, a social activist.

Then, on November 14, the RBI declared state cooperative banks can no longer exc­hange old currency notes for new, nor accept fresh deposits. 바카라�Since then, traders have begun anticipating that the cash crisis will last for months, and they are beh­­aving accordingly by almost halting all operations,바카라� says Sami Aghai, a social activist in Agra. 바카라�In rural areas the condition is pitiable, as poor people moved by the slogan against black money are failing to notice their savings and income vanish. Thousands are rendered jobless. When they finally face the impact of this crisis, the results will be devastating.바카라�

In Dabali, the vanishing of cash has first cast its long shadow on the poor, particularly among Mayawati바카라�s supporters. 바카라�We are landless working people with nothing left to eat since the big notes went away,바카라� says Reshma, a Dalit woman who could not withdraw her widow바카라�s pension due to the rush in banks. Nor have her three sons, all beldars바카라�farm labourers바카라�who have been paid for the recently harvested wheat. Lan­d­lords want them to accept payments in Rs 500 notes but they refuse, having lost several days바카라� earnings in bank lines. 바카라�It바카라�s like a death sentence,바카라� says Reshma. 바카라�The bania doesn바카라�t offer us loans and the banks shoo us away.바카라�

바카라�Let landlords exchange the cash themselves. We바카라�re living off loans or exchanging Rs 500 for four hundred-rupee notes. This is destroying our livelihood and savings,바카라� says Reshma바카라�s youngest son, Pushpender. The family has only earned around half of their usual income for November.

바카라�The poor get poorer and the rich richer,바카라� says Mohan, who got a Rs 2,000 note from a local SBI ATM after several trips but doesn바카라�t know where to get it changed into smaller notes to buy food. He borrowed wheat seeds and fertiliser from a local merchant, but Rs 2,000 won바카라�t cover its cost. He needs to return for fresh withdrawals but at the cost of neglecting his vegetable farm. 바카라�I haven바카라�t been paid for last year바카라�s produce; now I바카라�m losing this year바카라�s income,바카라� he says.

Sudhir Tiwari grew chilli and eggplant on his two bighas and is now ready to harvest. Next, he needs cash for the wheat crop. He queued up at the Midhakur SBI ATM just past midnight on Friday and withdrew Rs 2,000. He repaid traders who had loaned him wheat seeds and fertiliser but needs more cash for his children바카라�s school fees. 바카라�But the bank forbids me from returning for another five days. And at the ATM the police beats us,바카라� he says wearily.

Tiwari, who supports two children, aged 4 and 5, his wife, mother and fat­her, has been hit hard. A 50 kg sack of seeds sells for Rs 1,000 if paid for in smaller denominations. But for buy­ers with the old Rs 500 or Rs 1,000 notes they cost Rs 1,100 or Rs 1,150. So Tiwari has settled for lesser quantity of seeds for the next wheat crop. The decision, though individ­ual, has implications for the entire country, if more farmers chose, like him, a smaller crop. 바카라�After Modi바카라�s announcement I dep­osited my entire Rs 80,000 savings and that took two full days. Now I can바카라�t withdraw it, so I바카라�m stuck again,바카라� he says.

Dabali바카라�s Irfan sells clothes, cycling from village to village. The Rs 2,000 he withdrew wasn바카라�t enough to purchase a fresh stock, which costs Rs 6,000. For four days, every bank he visited was shut or out of cash. Not just that. His mother has chikunguniya and the doctors charge Rs 1,000 for fresh tests. 바카라�My savings are disappearing in Rs 2,000 instalments and I cannot work, for I can바카라�t purchase fresh stock,바카라� he says. 바카라�All rural people are hoarding their cash, despite the marriage season. Their confidence in cash is shaken.바카라�

Saleem바카라�s brother Ramesh (it is not unus­ual here for Muslims to have Hindu names) is trying to get his daughter Shammo married. 바카라�Nobody will buy my eggplant crop even at Rs 3 a kilo. I can only make manure out of it now. If this continues, Shammo will not get married,바카라� says Saleem. For him, a marginal farmer, the next crop of winter potatoes will be planted entirely on credit if the bank lines don바카라�t clear up soon. Then, he will worry about repaying the loan and finding someone to finance the fertiliser.

But Mukesh, who runs Dabali바카라�s barber shop, and his customers Ravi and Vishnu, both farm workers, still feel the crisis will 바카라�fix바카라� the rich. Demonetisation may have cri­tics, precisely for its ill effects on the poor but, somehow, it also whips up a raw sense of justice. 바카라�When Modi announced the end of big notes, I didn바카라�t own a single Rs 500. I바카라�ve never earned more than Rs 250 a day and don바카라�t have, or need, a bank account,바카라� says Mukesh. 바카라�Modi바카라�s dec­ision will only harm the rich바카라�those who kept Rs 500 notes hidden in sacks,바카라� he says, as his friends nod in agreement.

In Sagunapur, the village next door, Devendra Dhankad, a small farmer, is similarly affected by expensive seeds and crashing vegetable prices at the start of winter sowing. 바카라�But Modi had said money in foreign countries will return to India and there바카라�s hope바카라�ummeed hai바카라�that whatever returns will reach our bank accounts,바카라� he says. Kaptan Singh Bhagela, a capsicum grower, belongs to a section of OBCs that supports the BJP. 바카라�Even if BJP바카라�s rivals field a Bhag­ela candidate, we바카라�ll not leave the party,바카라� he says. Capsicum is selling for Rs 12-13, much below last year바카라�s Rs 22-23 and traders,  for the first time ever, haven바카라�t come to buy from the village. 바카라�But we바카라�re saving Rs 150 a day working ourselves, instead of hiring labour,바카라� says Kaptan바카라�s mother, who is around 60 and bent over her fields.

Yet, the farther Delhi gets, the worse is the sense of a crisis. Omvir Yadav manages a state cooperative bank branch in Ekdil, a town of 10,000 in Etawah district, 387 km from Delhi. He says farmers바카라�they make up over 90 per cent of the bank바카라�s catchment area바카라�are increasingly anxious about their savings in cooperative accounts. These banks are linked to six cooperative societies through which farmers can purchase grain, seeds or fertiliser. Only as long as the cooperative banks are good for their deposits do the accredited societies survive. If there is a run on these banks the entire rural credit system is at risk.

바카라�We have 14,000 accounts in just this one branch, with deposits worth Rs 12 crore. But we have no money, so they can바카라�t withdraw from their own accounts. It is a very serious problem,바카라� says Yadav.

바카라�I have come here five times for my own money but I바카라�m told there isn바카라�t any,바카라� says Janesh Singh, a farmer. Much of his savings바카라�Rs 1 lakh바카라�are in this one bank branch. 바카라�Before November 9 everything was fine but now when I need fertiliser for my potato and wheat there바카라�s no money. The bania is not accepting old notes....바카라� he says. 바카라�Now we can buy seeds from government outlets with old Rs 500 notes, but what about fertilizer, food and labour?바카라�

Panchi Lal, a farmer from Hiranpur, opened a cooperative bank account because he felt it was helpful and hassle-free. 바카라�I just harvested my rice. Now I need to sow wheat, but I haven바카라�t got money to buy seeds,바카라� says he. 바카라�I believe in the fight against black money but I have loans to repay.바카라�

But Meeru, a marginal farmer in village Daulatpur, is convinced the PM has done the right thing. He owns barely an acre, just enough to earn Rs 20,000 twice a year from selling wheat and rice. 바카라�Earlier, the mahajan (trader) who bought my crop paid me two-three months late. This year, he paid me on the spot, in cash. Obviously, he always had the money but used to hide it,바카라� says Meeru. 바카라�We바카라�re living off our savings. We have few needs anyway. We have chillar (loose change) and grain at home. We were poor and we바카라�ll remain poor. But Modi바카라�s scheme has showed how much money the rich really have,바카라� says his sister, Lali.

A deluge of YouTube videos and WhatsApp messages since the demonetisation has Lali, Meeru and their entire family enthralled: 바카라�Two rooms full of cash were seized in Rajasthan. Traders in Bihar were caught with millions in cash. Every corrupt person is having sleepless nights.바카라� With the poor left to bear the brunt of a great economic clean-up, stories of comeuppance are their only solace. 

 By Pragya Singh in Western UP