As Russia바카라s war in Ukraine becomes a quagmire of attrition, Western leaders are slowly coming to two realisations about Vladimir Putin바카라s intentions. First, Russia바카라s war against Ukraine won바카라t be over soon, and is likely to grind on for the foreseeable future. Second, it바카라s pointless to try to imagine a future in which relations with Moscow are characterised by anything other by mutual mistrust and hostility.
In spite of this, there is still the chance that Russia바카라s invasion falls off the international radar through a Western inability to deal with hard realities. Putin바카라s war of expansion. In an interview with a German newspaper, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg estimated the war could take years, rather than months.
Patrick Sanders, the incoming chief of the British Army, has claimed the UK바카라s armed forces need to be oriented around fighting a ground war with Russia. And after an awkwardly frosty hug with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even French President Emmanuel Macron, whose calls to Putin have annoyed Kyiv and who previously warned Putin must not be humiliated, has voiced his unequivocal support for Ukraine.
These epiphanies are long overdue. There바카라s no point in dreaming up elaborate diplomatic 바카라off ramps바카라 for Putin when it바카라s abundantly clear he sees no need for them. Doing so also denies Ukraine agency in determining how the war ends, and presupposes a post-conflict European security order can meet both Russian and Western requirements. As witnessed prior to Russia바카라s invasion on February 24, the Kremlin isn바카라t content with anything short of regaining something close to the geo-strategic footprint of the USSR.
Obsessed with territorial aggrandisement, and having cynically cultivated a fetish for militarism in Russian society, Vladimir Putin recently admitted as much when he compared himself to Peter the Great, noting 바카라now it바카라s our turn to get our lands back바카라. At the very least, Putin바카라s words should put to bed the vastly overstated claim that the enlargement of Western security structures somehow forced Putin to invade Ukraine. This is clearly a war of Russian expansion, not NATO expansion.
Yet some Western security policymakers and commentators remain incapable of letting go of victor바카라s guilt over how the fledgling Russian state was treated following the USSR바카라s collapse. While such sentiments are to an extent defensible, the West바카라s strategic failings nonetheless pale in comparison to Putin바카라s long history of internal repression, political warfare against external foes, nuclear threats, and brutality against those whose continued independence irk him.
Putin waiting the West out
Another reason the West should avoid the temptation of hand-wringing is because now is the most dangerous time in Ukraine바카라s efforts to repel the Russian invasion. By its own estimation, Ukraine바카라s forces are outgunned ten-to-one by Russian artillery in the Donbas region. However, Ukraine has no option but to keep fighting, both for national survival and because suing for peace now 바카라 given what we know about the barbarism inflicted on Ukrainians by Russian invaders 바카라 would mean a swift end for Zelenskyy바카라s government.
Having initially failed to capture Kyiv in a poorly conceived and executed dash for the capital, Russian forces have adopted their typical approach to offensive operations 바카라 massive unguided fires in both urban and rural environments. That curtain of bombardment allows its military to advance, albeit painfully slowly.
This suits Putin just fine, at least for the moment. He has no incentive to go to the negotiating table since the limited territory he has seized from Ukraine so far cannot be spun as a great victory either at home or abroad. His military calculus is simple: to continue capturing territory and destroy as much of Ukraine바카라s infrastructure as possible.
It also dovetails with his strategic calculus, which is to simply wait the West out. Previously 바카라 in Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea 바카라 he has correctly anticipated that Western tolerance for protracted confrontation is low, and it can be counted on to de-escalate.
Will the invasion fall off the radar?
Yet although Western elites are gloomily coming to the understanding Putin cannot somehow be managed, there remains a significant danger the conflict falls off the international radar, or that Western leaders waver as the conflict drags on.
We can already see some of this happening: in the tendency of the Western media to grasp at straws over Putin바카라s reputed ill-health, and in Germany바카라s egregious vacillation over allowing heavy weapons destined for Ukraine to transit its territory.
For his part, Zelenskyy is acutely aware of this. It바카라s why he has maintained the pressure on European nations to match words with deeds. It바카라s also why he now expects something in return for the popularity sugar hit European leaders get from photo opportunities after taking the increasingly well-worn path to Kyiv to meet him.
3 reasons to meet Ukraine바카라s military requests
Meeting Ukraine바카라s requests for heavy weapons and ammunition is in the interests of NATO members for three reasons. It바카라s critical to show Putin that escalation comes with real costs: something Western leaders have shied away from for decades.
It바카라s increasingly likely neither Ukraine nor Russia will be happy with any eventual settlement to the war, and a 바카라frozen바카라 conflict leaves Russia the chance to try again in future. Ukraine바카라s armed forces have performed far above expectations in denying the Kremlin the chance to 바카라win바카라, at least in terms of its original ambitions. But although Kyiv바카라s desire to recapture all its lost territory 바카라 including Crimea 바카라 is unsurprising, there바카라s no realistic prospect of that without military assistance far beyond its requests.
A third reason for the West to meet Ukrainian hardware needs concerns the credibility of NATO바카라s and the EU바카라s assertions they protect international order and shared values. No matter how the war ends, a profoundly damaged Ukraine will take decades to rebuild.
And while it바카라s currently fashionable for Western leaders to proclaim how much they are doing to help, the reality is they바카라re safely watching Ukraine fight a major power.
With that track record, it would be completely understandable for those in other nations that might need Western security assistance in future to have little confidence in obtaining much more beyond noble sentiments, and bare minimum support.
(with iputs from AP)
