It's Advantage Pakistan As US-Taliban Peace Agreement Makes India Wary

It took 19 years, the longest armed eng­agement in American history, for the US to realise that despite possessing by far the most modern army and sophisticated weaponry, it no longer wanted to play 바카라�policeman바카라� in Afghanistan, particularly when caught in a quagmire. Rather, it was prudent to cut losses and run.

Actuated by that wisdom, the US ent­ered into a 바카라�peace agreement바카라� with the Pakistan-backed militant group, the Taliban, on February 29 in Doha that promises to pave the way in legitimising the latter as a key player in Afghan affairs. There is a strong possibility that Afghanistan may now enter into a fresh and prolonged bout of violence, as rival players prepare to expand their influence in the war-ravaged country.

India looks at the recent Afghan dev­elopments with mostly well-founded trepidation and some hope. For its past brushes with a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan had been decidedly unp­leasant. On top of the list is IC 814. In December 1999, an Indian Airlines aircraft was hijacked to Kandahar by Pakistani terrorists who, aided by the Taliban, secured the release of the Jaish-e- Mohammed chief Masood Azhar from an Indian jail in exchange of the hapless passengers바카라� freedom.

More worrying is the price Pakistan is likely to extract from the US for delivering the Taliban to the talks table. An obv­ious concession could be getting it off the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list to help it get international loans and investments. The India-obsessed Pakis­tani establishment regards Afghanistan as a country that provides it with 바카라�strategic depth바카라�. A Pakistan-Taliban combine using Afghanistan to launch anti-India terrorist activities would pose a serious challenge to New Delhi.

The American thinking is evident in what President Donald Trump told newsmen바카라�that the US was not 바카라�a pol­ice force바카라� and from now on Afghans will have to 바카라�police it themselves바카라�. Though he made it clear that the US wanted its 바카라�young people to come back home바카라�, he also tried to make virtue out of a necessity by saying that the US could have won the war in Afghanistan but dec­ided against it to avoid killing millions.

The US-Taliban peace agreement took nearly two years of hard bargaining to materialise. It was primarily driven by Trump바카라�s desire to make good his promise of bringing American troops back home, aiming for the rich dividends it would pay in his re-election bid this November.

In a joint statement after his talks with PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi last week, Trump had assured the Indian leadership about the convergence of ideas on Afghanistan바카라�s future. 바카라�India and the United States share an interest in a united, sovereign, democratic, inclusive, stable and prosperous Afghanistan. They support an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process that results in sustainable peace, cessation of violence, elimination of terrorist safe havens and preservation of the gains of the last 18 years,바카라� it said.

바카라�What we saw in Doha was not a surprise. Everybody knew something like this was happening,바카라� says Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar.

India was among the countries invited as observers to witness the peace deal being signed in Doha. But before that, in a gesture of solidarity, India바카라�s foreign secretary Harsh Shringla flew to Kabul to assure Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other senior members of his government of India바카라�s continuing support and close cooperation in the country바카라�s development. Shringla also delivered a letter from Modi to Ghani that conveyed the importance New Delhi continues to give to its ties with Kabul.

Anxiety tinged with hope바카라�how should India look at the evolving scenario in Afghanistan?

바카라�I think it is a bit of both,바카라� says former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya. 바카라�Most Afghans received the news of the 바카라�deal바카라� and the intra-Afghan talks with hope, as the first opportunity for a negotiated peace in 19 years. But with trepidation too, about the price they will have to pay for peace.바카라�

Mukhopadhaya adds, 바카라�We empathise with that and should support the process politically. But we should be under no ill­usions that the deal will change the military and political equations between democratic forces in Afghanistan and the Taliban while the planned intra-Afg­han talks take place. While US military and political support will weaken, Pakistani support for the Taliban will rem­ain intact, and in fact, will have more freedom to operate.바카라�

According to Mukhopadhaya, the Taliban바카라�s resumption of hostilities against government forces after a short-lived ceasefire suggests their softer language in the run-up to the deal was for effect. They remain determined to press what they see as their military and diplomatic advantage. This does not augur well for the controversial prisoner swap deal바카라�a confidence building measure in the US-Taliban agreement that was speedily rejected by Ghani바카라�or lasting peace. Every single factor points to an increase in bloodshed. For India, it would mean an unstable Afghanistan spilling violence into the region and, ine­vitably, more terrorism.

The seamless return to fighting by the Taliban has raised concerns over the efficacy of the peace deal too. Indian observers point out that the 바카라�fig leaf바카라� that the Taliban struggle was aimed at ending foreign occupation will stand exposed as the battle for control of Afghanistan, using terrorism supported or engineered by Pakistan, increase in ferocity.

They argue that though the US hopes to use its considerable influence to avoid derailing the process, a lot would depend on other factors, including President Trump바카라�s patience. They warn that there could be attempts to escalate jehadi act­ivity in Jammu and Kashmir. But, as a positive, they say that Pakistan is likely to face a less gullible US military바카라�an establishment with its hands finally untied and which is more aware of Pakistan바카라�s inherent, cynical duplicity over the past two decades.

While this may well prove to be nothing more than 바카라�wishful thinking바카라�, some even argue that it could be worthwhile to engage with the Taliban.

바카라�All the major stakeholders are eng­aging with the Taliban, so what stops us from doing the same?바카라� asks former MEA secretary Vivek Katju. He argues, 바카라�Engaging necessarily does not mean endorsing.바카라�

While the Taliban may well be looking for options beyond Pakistan, and India may be one of the viable ones, New Delhi is still wary of regarding them as future allies.

Even as fast-paced developments point towards an uncertain future, the gains of the past two decades in Afghanistan바카라�and Indian interests along with it바카라�may still be best served by the democratica­lly-elected Afghan government. At a time when the Americans have vacated a crucial space, Afghanistan now needs India바카라�s support more than they did anytime in the past.