What Would Victory Look Like?
A toughened bureaucrat like India바카라™s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had to lock his X account after the dastardly trolls got after him and his family for announcing the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Television anchors in army fatigues and camouflage helmets with leaves sticking out, a la Private Ryan, reporting from luxury resorts in balmy Srinager, framed in extreme close-ups so that it wouldn바카라™t give away a swimming pool or a bar in the background, were dumbstruck by the announcement. Ladies and gents in Resident Welfare Association groups, who had begun stocking up on groceries, medicines and catfood for a prolonged war, for once, were left speechless.
But what do people straining at the leash for war with Pakistan really want? What do they envisage an Indian victory over Pakistan to be like? That India should bombard Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad to the ground and annexe Pakistan?
Those who want war with Pakistan are also those who hate the approximately 20 crore Muslims presently in India. What will they do with another 25 crore from Pakistan? Or is the idea to annihilate Pakistan completely, along with its entire population? Then India will rebuild the country to pre-Partition geography again with Indians setting up shop there (we can worry about Bangladesh later)? But Pakistan is not even a Ukraine with its rich minerals, rare earth, oil and gas. We will inherit a country with an estimated $280 billion debt, the fractious religious groups and failing infrastructure.
Futile Jingoism
By this reasoning, while India pummels Pakistan, they think China, the US, Russia, Europe and Japan will be mere spectators? When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the war will be over in three days. Now it is three years, 200,000 people killed, over 500,000 wounded and displaced. The Israel-Hamas war is a year-and-a-half old, with over 50,000 Palestinians killed, and many more left hungry and shelter-less.
Is this what the war mongers want India and Pakistan to get into? For our soldiers, our fighter pilots, our sailors to sacrifice their lives to feed this jingoistic fervour? One night of drone attacks inside Jammu city and right up to Sirsa in Haryana after Operation Sindoor brought the war reality close to metros like Chandigarh, Amritsar and even Delhi. A full-fledged war with Pakistan now won바카라™t be like Kargil, fought by our brave soldiers in faraway glaciers. It will come to our cities in air sirens, blackouts and bunkers. Is this what they want?
This scenario is of course only as long as the war is limited to conventional weapons. A comparison of India and Pakistan바카라™s armed forces will reveal India바카라™s great edge over its enemy in every sphere. Our annual defence budget at about $80 billion is eight times of Pakistan바카라™s. Roughly, we have about a 1.5 million standing army, they have less than half. We have about 4,000 tanks, they have about 2,500. We have over 2,200 fighter planes, they have around 1,400. We have about 300 navy ships, they have 120.
But if you compare one nuclear button to another, this edge vanishes. The difference between reported nuclear warheads between the two countries is only in tens. It is anybody바카라™s guess if a full-on war starts, how long it will stay conventional, how long before a deranged general on the other side presses the dreaded button.
The Horrors of War
There have been umpteen books, films and documentaries on the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings in 1945 over the years. The most tragic and shocking part is how even recent documentaries like White Light/Black Rain (2007) or BBC바카라™s Atomic People (2024) still bring out new horror stories of the sufferings of the people, the earth, the flora and fauna and the climate after 80 years of the attack. Is this what those television channel anchors and social media trolls want?
This is the price a chest-thumping, aggressive government has to pay. The television channels, Youtubers and social media influencers fed on the 바카라˜ghar me ghus ke maarenge바카라™ rhetoric, amplified many times over in their channels and on their handles, now feel betrayed staring at a sterile ceasefire. Beyond all the posturing, if the government shows restraint, taking a practical course when it comes to the crunch, its supporters feel let down. They start doing what they know best: to spread vitriol and venom through smartphone keypads.
Satish Padmanabhan is the Managing Editor, outlook magazine
This article is part of Outlook바카라™s 1 June 2025 issue, 'Gated Neighbourhood', which examines the state of diplomacy, media, and democracy in the wake of the ceasefire. It appeared in print as 'Warmongers바카라™ Diary.'
