Borders And Beyond: Geopolitical Ripples Of The Indo-Pak Conflict

The signs of confrontation were unmistakable: precision missile and drone strikes, claims of shooting down advanced aircraft, fears of cyber-attacks, and the pounding of border villages by artillery and mortar fire. Cities braced for the worst with blackouts and sirens, while civilians in forward areas paid the heaviest price. Evacuation orders, civilian casualties, and a palpable sense of fear defined those tense days.

Now, as the guns fall silent and diplomatic backchannels engage, the region pauses to take stock. The recent flare-up has not only tested the limits of deterrence, but also redrawn the invisible redlines that govern South Asia바카라�s uneasy peace. And for ordinary citizens on both sides, the question remains: not just what happens next, but whether the respite will last.

USA바카라�s Role

The US worked out the ceasefire just when India-Pakistan appeared to be heading for a full-blown war. Hours before either India or Pakistan formally announced a stop to the fighting, US President Donald Trump took to his social media platform: 바카라�After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!바카라�

바카라�President Trump바카라�s announcement demonstrates the fact that even if he doesn바카라�t believe in the US being the global policeman, other countries do. Apparently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the Pakistani army chief also, in addition to speaking with Indian officials. This all-night diplomacy at the American end will hopefully calm the situation,바카라� says Aparna Pande of the Washington-based Hudson Institute.

Earlier, the US appeared to have washed its hands off from the crisis바카라�unlike previous administrations, both Democratic and Republican, that always played a pivotal role in diffusing the crisis. Washington, working with its western allies, as well as several Gulf countries, had earlier helped to prevent a potential all-out war. In fact, during Trump바카라�s first term in office, US diplomacy had a hand in cooling temperatures. The return of captured Indian pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, from Pakistan in 2019 was aided by Washington and several Gulf countries. His return helped in avoiding a crisis. This time around, the US appeared to have adopted a hands-off policy. Soon after the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam바카라�that killed 26 Indian holiday makers in Kashmir바카라�Trump said. 바카라�They바카라�ll get it figured out one way or the other,바카라� adding that 바카라�there바카라�s great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been.바카라�

The attack happened while US Vice President J. D. Vance was on a visit to India. Soon after India바카라�s missile strikes inside Pakistan, Vance said: 바카라�We바카라�re not going to get involved in the middle of a war that바카라�s fundamentally none of our business.바카라� 바카라�Look, we바카라�re concerned any time nuclear powers collide and have a major conflict,바카라� he added.

This abdication of America바카라�s role as a superpower committed to fulfil its responsibility led to much criticism. 바카라�First, it has demonstrated just how different US diplomacy is under Trump 2.0 than earlier governments. Any other president would have been heavily involved in an India-Pakistan crisis. Trump is basically absent and Vance is saying it is none of their business. That will be noted by other countries around the world,바카라� says Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Australia바카라�s Griffith University.

However, when the situation got out of hand and India and Pakistan appeared to head for a full-fledged war, Washington took note and began working the phone lines to New Delhi, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistan Army. As Rubio wrote in his social media account 바카라�Over the past 48 hours, @VPVance and I have engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik. I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site. We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.바카라�

Retired diplomat and author, Ambassador Dilip Sinha, had this to say of Trump. 바카라�He had promised a ceasefire in Gaza and Ukraine, but has not been able to push those. But he has succeeded here in India and Pakistan and the people of South Asia are grateful for this.바카라�

Both India and Pakistan did not want war.

What helped the American effort to bring back the two countries from the brink was that neither was keen for a full blown war. After the terror attack, Modi had no option, but to strike back. Indian domestic opinion and television channels were baying for blood. When India struck at the terror infrastructure in Punjab and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), they made sure that military targets were not hit. Briefing the media the day after Operation Sindoor, Misri emphasised that India바카라�s response was 바카라�measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible바카라�.

But when Pakistan targeted Indian military installations, New Delhi did not hesitate to answer in kind. Pakistan claimed to have put down five of India바카라�s fighter jets, including a Rafale fighter. New Delhi has not confirmed this. However, irrespective of whether it is true or not, Munir is satisfied that he has hit back hard at India. The crisis has helped Munir and the Pakistan Army to restore its reputation. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan바카라�s supporters had led demonstrations and shouted slogans against the army, something unheard of in Pakistan. But since the Indian action, the entire nation has backed the army. So both India and Pakistan can rest satisfied that they have given each other a bloody nose and satisfied their respective domestic constituencies.

바카라�The escalation with India has been beneficial for the Pakistan Army, especially its army chief, as it has rallied Pakistanis to the military and helped restore support for an institution and chief who had been targeted by supporters of Imran Khan,바카라� says Pande.

Old Equations Hold

What the India Pakistan stand-off has shown is that old equations still hold. India바카라�s strategic relations with the US have undergone a sea change in recent years. Once on the opposing sides of the Cold War divide, the two countries are now close partners. Yet, when push comes to shove, India can continue to rely on Russia.

President Vladimir Putin바카라�s recent call to Modi laid to rest some of the confusion triggered by certain remarks by Moscow바카라�s envoy to Islamabad. Putin backed India in its fight against terror. Russia바카라�s support had always been with India, since way back in the days when the US and its allies turned a deaf ear to India바카라�s complains against Pakistan. That has changed now, but India remains a fast friend of Russia despite all efforts by the US to break the tradition. New Delhi refused to condemn Russia over Ukraine at the UN. Though Moscow바카라�s relations with Islamabad have improved, in case of war, Russia is expected to stand with India.

The Russian-made S-400 air defence missile system, renamed Sudarshan Chakra by India, helped to neutralise a wave of drone and missile attacks on Indian military installations this week.

Similarly, Pakistan can bank on China, its forever-friend in the region. China has said that it will support Pakistan바카라�s sovereignty and understands its security concerns.

Turkey and Azerbaijan are also backing Pakistan. The 57 members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have backed Pakistan and mentioned Kashmir in their statement calling for de-escalation between India and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and most of the Gulf Sheikhdoms are members of the OIC. India바카라�s economic and political relations with the Gulf countries are growing by the day, but as most of the sheikhdoms also have historical ties with Pakistan, they are likely to remain neutral and call quick de-escalation of tensions in the future.

Israel and India are close friends. Israel-made HAROP drones were used with devastating effect by India in Operation Sindoor.

In case there is an all-out war between India and Pakistan in times to come, the US will offer diplomatic support to India, but stop short of military involvement. France, Italy and most of Europe, as well as Australia, will urge both India and Pakistan to diffuse the crisis. India바카라�s retired diplomats were certain that the US would have to finally step in to diffuse the crisis. They were right.

Seema Guha is a senior journalist covering foreign affairs

This article is part of Outlook바카라�s May 22, 2025 issue, 바카라�Is This War?바카라�, covering the tense four-day standoff that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war. It appeared in print as Fragile Calm.