The overall enrolment in schools will have declined by more than 14 per cent by 2025, beginning from 2011, with the enrolment of girls expected to decline by over 2 per cent more than that of boys, an NCERT study has projected.
The enrolment of scheduled caste students would remain unchanged for the next 5바카라10 years, while the number of students from scheduled tribe will face stagnation after 2023-24, the study by Educational Survey Division (ESD) of NCERT added.
The report said that enrolment is a function of population, so a decline in the child population in the age groups of 6바카라11, 11바카라14, and 14바카라16 years is reflected in the enrolment at each stage.
The report 바카라Projection and Trends of School Enrolment by 2025바카라 has taken into account the National Achievement Survey (NAS) conducted by the NCERT and figures of the annual Unified District Information System for Education (UDISE) data.
The study considered NAS reports from 21 states where the population was more than 5 million in the 2011 Population Census of India, saying 바카라there is much fluctuation in the data of the North Eastern states and some statistics are not available.바카라
"The growth in enrolment at the primary stage continued up to the year 2011. After 2011, the enrolment has declined and this will continue till 2025. During the period from 2011 to 2025, total enrolment will decrease by 14.37 per cent whereas enrolment of boys and girls will decrease by 13.28 per cent and 15.54 per cent, respectively,바카라 the study report said.
"At the upper primary stage, the enrolment of boys, girls and the total percentage started to decline from 2016. During this period, enrolment decreased by 9.47 per cent (in total), 8.07 per cent (boys) and 10.94 per cent (girls). 바카라Similarly, decline in enrolment was also recorded at the secondary stage but here the decline started from 2020,바카라 it said.
In the social groups, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, the decline in school enrolment pattern was very similar to India바카라s enrolment pattern. "After 2016바카라17 and 2017바카라18, the enrolment of scheduled caste and scheduled tribe children was almost uniform in all the stages for some years. It may be due to stagnancy in population,바카라 it said.
바카라It was projected that after 2020-21, enrolment of scheduled caste students would remain unchanged for the next 5바카라10 years while in case of scheduled tribe students, there will be stagnation in this group after 2023-24,바카라 it added.
"Enrolment is a function of population. If there is less gap between enrolment figure and child population of the respective age or age-group then growth in enrolment will be directly proportional to the growth in the child population of that respective age or age-group,바카라 it said.
The NCERT report has studied trends since 1950, when the country had 2,171 schools with 2.38 crore students. 바카라The study is an outcome of the PAC programme바카라s objective of projecting the school enrolment in the country from 2016-2025.
바카라It will help in identifying the possible trends in school enrolment for boys and girls as well as the marginalized groups of society for all the states and UTs in the country,바카라 said Indrani Bhaduri, Head of survey division at National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT). She said the analysis can give insights and help the government plan future education policies.
"This forms the basis for many investment decisions like opening of new schools, upgradation of existing schools, employment and deployment of teachers and the provisioning of infrastructure,바카라 said Bhaduri.
(With PTI inputs)
