Final Battle For Democracy: In Saffron Citadel Gorakhpur, Fragmented Opposition May Benefit BJP

The stakes in the politically volatile state바카라�s polls, seen as a bellwether for the 2024 General Elections, are high both for the BJP and the SP: if Yogi wins, he will be the first CM to retain power for a second consecutive term in the electoral history of UP. If Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav comes to power, as the Deshbandhu and 4 PM exit polls have forecast, his party would break the jinx of three defeats in a row: 2014, 2017, and 2019. 바카라�The UP election is the final battle of democracy. After this, it will take a revolution to defeat the BJP,바카라� Yadav has admitted during his campaigns. Dismissing the exit polls바카라� calculation that foresees the BJP forming the government under Yogi Adityanath, Yadav has said that he is confident of winning 300 seats. 바카라�The exit polls are trying to create a perception that the BJP has an edge so that even if the (EVM) thefts happen, we don바카라�t get to know that they were stolen,바카라� Yadav told media persons on Monday.

Yadav바카라�s allies, SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar and RLD president Jayant Chaudhary, share his optimism. At a public rally in Varanasi on March 4, days before the final phase of polling, Rajbhar said: 바카라�The departure of the BJP is imminent... At 10 am on March 10, songs that will play are 바카라�Mere angne mein tumhara kya kaam hai바카라� and 바카라�chal sanyasi mandir mein바카라�.바카라� 바카라�The BJP is fighting for its existence in this election. It has become so frustrated that for the first time in the history of the country a prime minister had to go on district-wise tours campaigning for the BJP,바카라� added Rajbhar, who believes that the BJP will not be able to cross double-figure in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Polling was held for the 54 constituencies in the region in the seventh and last phase on Monday. RLD president Jayant Chaudhary, on the other, responded to the exit polls results through a tweet: 바카라�Exit poll kya karenge jab vote koko le gayi? (What will exit poll do when the votes have been taken by koko?).바카라� Chaudhary바카라�s tweet was in reference to Bharatiya Kisan Union national spokesperson Rakesh Singh Tikait바카라�s statement to the media during the first phase of elections, in which he took a dig at the BJP. It had amused a lot of people, making them look up the meaning of 바카라�koko바카라�, a hawk-like bird. Elders in Uttar Pradesh evoke 바카라�koko바카라� to lie to children that the things they take away from them are actually taken away by the bird.  

After its alliance with the Congress and the BSP failed to do the trick in previous elections, the SP has tried to expand its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank by reaching out to non-Yadav OBCs like Rajbhars and Nishads, and also by choosing RLD as an ally, since anger among farmers is going to be decisive in this election. However, the non-Yadav OBCS, especially Nishads (Sanjay Nishad of the Nishad Party is a BJP ally now) stand divided across the state, including in Gorakhpur, where 109 candidates are in the fray in the nine constituencies. For instance, in Campierganj, where the Nishads form one third (nearly 30 percent) of the electorate, all the three challengers of the sitting BJP MLA, Fateh Bahadur Singh, are Nishads: Kajal Nishad (SP), Chandra Prakash Nishad (BSP), and Surendra Kumar Nishad (Congress). While Kajal Nishad has put up a strong fight, the votes of the community are likely to get split among its three leaders. If the BJP바카라�s votes remain consolidated, Fateh Bahadur can become the MLA for the seventh term. The Singhs and Chauhans in the constituency, who form BJP바카라�s core voters in the area, (this reporter spoke to them when he was touring Gorakhpur in mid-February) remain firm in their support to the saffron party. Rahul Chauhan, 26, who lives in Jungle Kauria and works as a painter, says only Yadavs will vote for the SP. The slogan, 바카라�Jo Ramko Layen Hain, Hum Unko Layenge,바카라� has resonated with him. 바카라�As long as Yogi ji and Modi ji are there, all Hindus are safe. The Muslims need to be shown their place and only the BJP can do that. Look at what happened in Karnataka school! Today, they are fighting over hijab. Tomorrow, they may well ask for a mosque inside schools,바카라� he says, to loud cheers from his friends who surround him. In 2017, Fateh Bahadur Singh had defeated Chinta Yadav of the Congress by a margin of 32,854 votes.

In the Nishad-dominated Pipraich, 19 km away from the main city, Amrendra Nishad of the SP may seem to have an upper hand against sitting MLA Mahendra Pal Singh, but people in most of the villages this reporter visited said they will vote for the BJP. While some of them spoke out of fear, afraid of reprisal by the saffron supporters if the BJP candidate won, the launch of a new sugar mill in Pipraich with an aim to placate the farmers, may turn the tide in the party바카라�s favour. In the reserved Basgaon constituency, the victory of an OBC candidate, BJP바카라�s Vimlesh Paswan, against BSP바카라�s Dharmendra Kumar in 2017 symbolised the section바카라�s growing disenchantment with Mayawati. In the BJP stronghold, 283 km from Lucknow, Paswan has a strong base, which may help him in the final countdown. In the all-Brahmin fight of Chillupar, Vaishyas, Pasis, Nishads, Yadavs and Muslims hold the key. It바카라�s a constituency where Congress has won four times and BSP three times since the 1977 elections. But since the BJP votes are likely to remain undivided, this reporter will not be surprised if Rajesh Tripathi of the BJP trumps the unfavourable caste equation: his opponents, SP바카라�s Vinay  Tiwari and Sonia Shukla of the Congress come from the upper caste.

Eyeing the statewide target of 300-plus seats, the BJP looks to repeat its 2017 performance in Gorakhpur district, when it had won 8 seats. Analysing the nine seats in the constituency leaves one with the sense that the party will not be too way off the mark, even though its margins will shrink. It바카라�s largely because voters have been polarised, in some constituencies irrevocably. A youth in Pipraich told this reporter, 바카라�Naukri nahin hai to iske liye Yogiji zimmedar nahin hain. Jinko naukri nahin mil rahi woh shayad yogya hi nahin hain. (If there are no jobs, it바카라�s not Yogi who is to be blamed. Perhaps those who are not getting jobs are not qualified enough).바카라� This particular youth is a graduate with no job. He drives an auto for a living. But his family is a labarthi (beneficiary) of the government바카라�s welfare schemes. There is another section of youth in Gorakhpur, however, who have resigned themselves to a political climate where religion supersedes everything. 바카라�Democracy is a modern concept. But our society continues to be traditional, where issues of caste and religion remain dominant. I don바카라�t see the real issues of price rise and unemployment trumping religion issue anytime soon. Not at least in UP,바카라� says Rajkumar Sahni, an engineer, who works in the electricity department. 바카라�It바카라�s not my real name. If I tell you my real name, they might come for me,바카라� he says.