Maharashtra Elections 2019: Shiv Sena To Play Second Fiddle As BJP Goes For The Kill, Again

Back in 2014, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP바카라�s national president Amit Shah reposed trust in Fad­navis바카라�only the second Brahmin leader since Shiv Sena바카라�s Manohar Joshi to bec­ome the CM바카라�there was no dearth of skeptics wondering whether the 44-year-old leader from Nagpur had it in him whatever it takes to govern the richest state, dominated by powerful Maratha satraps over the years. Five years on, Fadnavis has tightened his grip on the party and his deft handling of the Maratha reservation issue, among other things, appears to have further endeared him to the central leadership.

As the state goes to the polls on October 21, a weakened opposition has failed to build any anti-incumbency narrative against Fadnavis바카라�s regime while his own party rivals have fallen by the wayside. The Sena바카라�once the big brother in the all­iance바카라�has been forced to play the secondary role despite harbouring ambitions to change the coalition바카라�s power equation back to its original factory settings.

Fadnavis, in the fray for his fifth term in from Nagpur South West, has doubtless emerged as the undisputed leader of the BJP, which is contesting 164 out of the 288 seats along with a few smaller allies. Shiv Sena is left with only 124 seats in its kitty after weeks of intense seat-sharing negotiations with the BJP for a 50:50 formula bore no fruit. For the record, the BJP and the Shiv Sena had won 122 and 63 seats respectively after contesting the 2014 state polls separately.

The BJP bosses apparently consider Fadnavis to be the best bet for the party. A leader with a clean image, he has consistently provided good governance to Maharashtra in the past five years, says Bhupender Yadav, the party바카라�s national general secretary and in-charge of the Maharashtra elections. 바카라�Our alliance will return to power with more than three-fourths of the seats this time and its biggest reason is the excellent work done by the Fadnavis government,바카라� Yadav tells Outlook. 바카라�The state has got a stable, transparent and development-minded government after a long time. Be it roads, irrigation, health or education, it has lived up to expectations in all fields. Investment-wise, Maharashtra is the No. 1 state in the past five years and it created maximum job opportunities.바카라�

Hardly surprising then that the BJP sounds more than optimistic that Fadnavis will be rewarded by the electorate and sworn in again as the CM바카라�the first in the state to have completed his full term since Congress바카라�s Vasantrao Naik between 1963 and 1975. Political analysts believe that a second term will not only help Fadnavis grow in stature but also force Shiv Sena to keep its chief ministerial ambitions in abeyance for now, notwithstanding party chief Udd­hav Thackeray바카라�s promise to his late father and party founder Balasaheb.

In a recent interview to the Shiv Sena mouthpiece, Saamna, Uddhav revealed that he had given his word to his father that a Sainik would become the chief minister again. 바카라�I will fulfil that promise, come what may,바카라� he was quoted as saying. Close on the heels of the BJP바카라�s ann­­ouncement that Fadnavis would be its candidate for the top post, Uddhav바카라�s remarks fuelled speculations that he would press for sharing of chief ministership after the polls. The presence of his son, Aaditya Thackeray, in the poll fray has lent further credence to such rumours. In fact, when the party dec­lared the Yuva Sena chief바카라�s candidature from the prestigious Worli assembly seat, Saamna바카라�s executive editor Sanjay Raut was quick to share what many considered to be the sentiments of an average Shiv Sainik. 바카라�Chandrayaan 2 couldn바카라�t land on the moon but we will ensure that this son (Aaditya Thackeray) reaches the sixth floor of Mantralaya on October 24,바카라� he said.

The entry of Aaditya in the poll arena, the first member from the Thackeray clan to join electoral politics, has ent­hused thousands of Sainiks, though Uddhav has subsequently made it clear that 바카라�Aaditya has just entered politics, which does not mean he will become chief minister or deputy chief minister바카라�.

Political observers interpret Uddhav바카라�s remarks on his party바카라�s claims to the chief ministership as a bid to lift the morale of his cadres who felt let down by the seat-sharing formula. Many Sainiks are said to be miffed with the BJP for having reneged on its promise of equal seats. But Uddhav has sought to assuage their feelings by saying that he has compromised on seats in the larger ­interests of the state. He has also lately spoken many times that Shiv Sena will win most of its seats, app­arently conveying to his cadres subtly that ultimately it is the number of winning candidates that holds the key to the chief ministership. 바카라�As of now, the issue is not who is the elder brother or younger brother in the ­alliance but keeping our brotherly relations intact. So the first thing is to contest and win the elections,바카라� he said.

Nonetheless, simmering unease within the party over the 바카라�big brotherly바카라� attitude of BJP keeps surfacing every now and then. The Sena has been ext­remely critical of the Fadnavis government바카라�s stand in recent times over the felling of trees for the construction of a metro car shade at Aarey Colony in Mumbai. In its editorial, the Saamna even dubbed it to be a dictatorial move akin to 바카라�Hitlershahi바카라�. Uddhav and Aaditya have also promised action against erring officials after coming to power even though it was the BMC, presently under Shiv Sena, which had initially app­roved of the controversial decision.

Nevertheless, Shiv Sena chose not to part ways with the BJP as it did in 2014 despite their mounting differences. Uddhav says that it is the thread of Hindutva that binds them together. Political observers, however, attribute it to the NDA바카라�s phenomenal performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine had won 41 of the 48 parliamentary seats five months ago, only one less than its 2014 tally. The Modi government has since taken landmark steps on key issues such as Article 370 and triple talaq which are believed to be its trump card.

Bhupender Yadav agrees that their coalition will benefit from the performance of the Modi government. 바카라�The people have started realising that the Modi government has taken decisive steps to strengthen the country, be it in the realm of international diplomacy, its fight against terrorism or securing our borders against infiltrators,바카라� he says. 바카라�As far as Kashmir is concerned, it has also initiated various welfare measures to solve administrative issues, thereby clearing the way for ameliorating the condition of women and scheduled castes in particular.바카라�

That the BJP would like to make these issues a major plank in Maharashtra polls was pretty clear from the very first rally of home minister Amit Shah at Beed on Dussehra where he spoke about the Modi government바카라�s bold move of scrapping Article 370.

The BJP-Sena coalition is also helped by the fact that its rivals are in total disarray. The Congress, which is contesting 144 seats in alliance with the NCP and some smaller parties, has been grappling with infighting which began before the Lok Sabha elections when Sanjay Nirupam was replaced by Milind Deora as Maharashtra Congress chief. Deora subsequently quit after the party바카라�s debacle in the Lok Sabha polls but there has been no let-up in dissension. Peeved by denial of the party ticket to one of his confidants, Nirupam has now sounded the bugle of revolt against the central leadership and opted out of the party바카라�s campaign.

With barely a few days left to go for the polls, the Congress바카라�s campaign does not seem to have got any momentum. While Rahul Gandhi is said to be on a foreign trip, there is no word yet on the campaign itinerary of Sonia Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi. Party leaders, however, claim that there is enough support on the ground for the Congress. Veteran Baldev Khosa, a four-term MLA and party candidate from Versova who is contesting for the seventh time, says that the people in general are fed up with the sagging economy and price rise. 바카라�From a big businessman to a street vendor, everybody tells me that they are suffering,바카라� Khosa tells Outlook. 바카라�Their businesses have collapsed.바카라�

Congress spokesman Anant Gadgil also says that people have gradually realised that the economy has worsened under this government. 바카라�Ahead of Diwali, there is gloom in the market. Many traders who had voted for the BJP last time have told me that they will not commit the same mistake this time.바카라�  

The NCP, which is fighting for 122 seats, is facing a big challenge. Apart from the Enforcement Directorate (ED) cases against party supremo Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar, the party has witnessed large-scale migration of its leaders to the saffron camp like the Congress. 바카라�Unlike 2014 when we had contested separately, there will not be any division of anti-NDA votes this time,바카라� says Gadgil.

The BJP-Sena alliance, however, is not taking any chances. It has planned a host of rallies by its top leaders led by Prime minister Modi and Amit Shah in the run-up to the polls. Strategically, it has also gone into the poll battle after junking the traditional 바카라�sitting-getting바카라� formula for distribution of tickets this time, denying even powerful leaders and ministers.

This is probably what distinguishes the BJP from the rest of the parties and may well have a bearing on the overall poll res­ults on October 24.

By Giridhar Jha in Mumbai