As the Madhya Pradesh electorate awaits results of the 28 assembly bypolls, could a new political storm be brewing in the state? The results, due on November 10, will decide whether the state, which has seen two governments in the past 23 months, is headed for another change or a continuation the Shivraj Singh Chouhan administration. Bypolls were held on November 3 in 25 (of 28) constituencies following the defection of Congress MLAs to the BJP.
For the BJP and chief minister Chouhan, a victory in nine seats would assure a simple majority in the 230-member Vidhan Sabha. The Congress needs to wrest all to reach the magic figure or bag at least 22 if it hopes to win back independent, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) legislators to its side. Simple arithmetic stacks the power equation heavily in BJP바카라s favour. Yet, the BJP is restive; aware that a wafer-thin majority is no guarantee of its government바카라s longevity. The Congress is on the edge too. Salami slicing of the Congress legislative party by the BJP cost Kamal Nath his government. Now, as Nath hopes for an electoral miracle that will propel him back to the CM바카라s chair, fickle political loyalties of Congress MLAs is a constant cause of speculation for another round of defections.
On October 25, while Nath was busy campaigning, the Congress lost another MLA바카라first-time legislator for Damoh, Rahul Lodhi바카라to the BJP. Ironically, Lodhi met Nath some months ago and told reporters later that he would never defect as he doesn바카라t wish his children to remember him as a 바카라gaddar바카라 who betrayed the Congress. But defect he did, and that too in the middle of a poll campaign that the Congress had projected as a 바카라referendum against traitors바카라.
Sources in the BJP바카라s MP unit say nearly a dozen Congress MLAs were in touch with the party and ready to switch sides. The party바카라s reliance on former Congressman Jyotiraditya Scindia for providing stability to the Chouhan administration 바카라is a liability바카라, the BJP sources say. The BJP had fielded the 25 Congress turncoats in the bypolls; a decision that irked many old-time party leaders. Nearly 20 of these are Scindia loyalists. A state BJP leader says the party now needs 바카라an exigency plan that pacifies our veterans, keeps Scindia and his men in check and also gives some cushion to our legislative strength바카라.
The BJP, it is learnt, has been in touch with other factional leaders of the Congress who aren바카라t happy with the continuing dominance of Nath and Digvijaya Singh. Sources say several Congress MLAs loyal to a former Union minister who also served as state Congress chief in the past have been feeling sidelined under Nath바카라s stewardship of the party. A second infusion of Congressmen into the BJP, say a senior BJP leader, will 바카라also contain Scindia바카라s growing interference in the Chouhan government바카라.
Nath, desperate to avenge his humiliation by Scindia and Chouhan, says he knows of a 바카라BJP plot to intimidate and buy more Congress MLAs바카라, but asserts that there are also several disgruntled BJP MLAs who are equally keen to join the Congress. Nath is confident that the bypolls will give an 바카라overwhelming mandate for the Congress and against the BJP바카라s politics of auctioning legislators바카라.
Neither Nath nor his party colleagues have any answer to what makes Congress MLAs such easy and frequent prey to alleged horse-trading attempts by the BJP. State BJP spokesperson Rajneesh Agarwal dismisses such allegations, insisting that 바카라Congress MLAs want to join us because they have seen the development politics of BJP and are inspired by our leadership바카라 they have no faith in Nath and Singh바카라. If the BJP suffers heavy losses in the bypolls, the results can well be viewed as a mandate against defections바카라even if Chouhan manages to save his government. But for the power players of MP, the political kabaddi between the BJP and Congress is unlikely to end anytime soon.
