The southwest monsoon made an early entry into India this year, arriving in Kerala on Saturday, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The normal onset date for the monsoon over Kerala is June 1. This year바카라™s arrival on May 25 puts it a full week ahead of schedule and is the earliest since 2009, when the rains reached the southern coast on May 23. The earliest recorded monsoon onset in Kerala since 1975 was in 1990, when it arrived on May 19.
Despite the early onset, meteorologists caution that it does not necessarily indicate how the monsoon season will progress. "There is no direct correlation between the onset date and the total rainfall over the country during the season," an IMD official explained. The progression of the monsoon across India is influenced by a complex interplay of global, regional, and local climatic factors.
Historically, monsoon arrival dates have varied: May 30 in 2024, June 8 in 2023, May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020, as per IMD records.
The IMD has forecast an above-normal monsoon season in 2025, with cumulative rainfall expected to exceed the long-period average (LPA). El Niño conditions바카라”often associated with reduced rainfall바카라”are not expected this year, further strengthening hopes of a healthy monsoon.
Rainfall in India is classified as "normal" when it falls between 96% and 104% of the LPA of 87 cm. In 2024, India recorded 934.8 mm of rainfall, 108% of the average바카라”the highest since 2020. Previous years saw 820 mm in 2023, 925 mm in 2022, 870 mm in 2021, and 958 mm in 2020.
The monsoon is critical to India's agricultural economy, which supports roughly 42% of the population and contributes over 18% to the country바카라™s GDP. It also plays a vital role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water supply and hydropower generation nationwide.
While the early arrival of the monsoon brings optimism, experts stress that its distribution and consistency over the coming months will be key in determining its overall impact on agriculture, water resources, and economic stability.
