In the run-up to any election, all political parties get busy fighting a battle of perception. And since narratives help build perceptions, the prelude to polling is marked by a war of narratives. This war is relentlessly fought either by media organs affiliated to parties or ventures that identify with an ideology or community. Out of the five states where election is being held, Uttar Pradesh matters the most for the sheer size of the electorate: 17 per cent of India바카라s voters.
The tug of war in the largest state is interesting to watch. Lucknow-based Arun Khote, executive editor of Justice News바카라a portal that claims to sensitise the masses about atrocities against Dalits by collating reports and analysis about the social group in the mainstream media바카라has been following this war closely. The BJP is desperate to retain power in UP, but Khote believes it has lost the war of narratives to Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav, who has left the ruling party 바카라dazed and confused바카라 by consolidating the support of MLAs who have jumped ship from the ruling dispensation.
바카라Till the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections, Opposition parties would fight after the BJP threw in their cards. In this election, however, the cards are being set up by Akhilesh and the BJP is being forced to change tack every now and then,바카라 says Khote, adding that the BJP바카라s top brass, including UP바카라s deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and national president J.P. Nadda, have been pole-vaulting from one issue to another바카라from making the Jinnah jibe at Akhilesh to calling for a grand temple in Mathura to the palayan (exodus) of Hindus in Muzaffarnagar, Bulandshahr and Kairana in the wake of the 2013 riots바카라with the sole agenda of polarising voters.
After the BJP바카라s clean sweep in the 2017 assembly elections, Swarajya, a magazine dedicated to the liberal centre-right discourse, had weighed in: 바카라The times have thrown the man: Modi. It remains to be seen whether the man can shape the times.바카라 Yogi Adityanath, the fiery Hindutva mascot and Modi바카라s man in UP, featured on the cover바카라in saffron robes and Ray-Ban sunglasses, palms raised in the air. The landslide, seen as a thumping mandate for PM Modi, had marked a significant political shift. With UP, 17 out of 28 states had fallen into its kitty and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had come to rule two-thirds of India바카라s population. The saffron wave in UP, Bhavdeep Kang wrote in a cover story (April 2017), was possible due to the 바카라diametric vision바카라 that Modi presented to the electorate: 바카라바카라of communities melded into an overarching Indian identity rather than stratified into clamouring interest groups, shaped by perceived or real oppression.바카라
If it was 바카라Modi바카라s charisma바카라 that brought the BJP to power in UP, it is on the wane now, says Ashok Das, editor of Dalit Dastak. Like Khote, he is clued in to zameeni sugbugahat (stirrings on the ground), and the complex caste matrix in a state in which Muslims and Dalits account for over a fourth of the votes. Das has just wrapped up the February issue of the monthly magazine, in which he looks at the impact of defections on the fate of political parties.
When BJP MLAs started shifting their loyalties soon after the announcement of poll dates, Das wrote a piece titled 바카라BJP바카라s Backward Equation Starts Cracking,바카라 in which he decoded the new development in UP바카라s ever-changing political landscape: 바카라The BJP is scared of OBC leaders leaving the party because the backward class population in the state is close to 43-45 per cent. In 2017, the BJP had given 125 seats to OBCs. It was because of this that it had won the election. Swami Prasad Maurya leaving BJP is a big setback, because he comes from Koiri-Kushwaha community. The vote share of this community is five per cent, on which Maurya has a strong hold.바카라
The polls to the 403-seat UP assembly are being held in seven phases바카라from February 10 to March 7. While the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) chief Mayawati is not contesting, the two prominent Dalit faces in the fray include Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad, who is pitted against Yogi from Gorakhpur, and BJP바카라s Baby Rani Maurya in Agra. Khote says Azad and Baby Maurya will not cause any major dent to the BSP as its votebank remains intact. It바카라s the BJP바카라s base that he sees as shrinking. His modus operandi to gauge this is the response to his posts on social media: 바카라BJP workers and its IT Cell don바카라t seem to be as active as they were in 2017. Earlier, I would write two lines against BJP and a stream of abuses would follow. Now, I write paragraphs and they go unnoticed.바카라
Given a strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency, the possibility of a wave for the BJP seems remote in 2022. On February 2, an editorial in Dawat, an Urdu weekly run by Jamaat-e-Islami, cites the reasons for people바카라s disenchantment with the party: 바카라What the party did to farmers when they were protesting is known to all. Now, the Union home minister is going from door to door, pleading for support from them바카라 There is no development work on the BJP바카라s agenda. It has failed miserably at all essential fronts. And that is why it바카라s resorting to its tried and tested weapon: hatred. Its ministers are busy whipping up a communal frenzy.바카라
For Moin Khalid, one of the editors at Dawat, the publication바카라s effort is to present the 바카라right바카라 perspective before readers. It strives not to 바카라communalise바카라 its coverage of elections, educating people 바카라sensitively바카라 so that polls are not looked at from a communal angle. 바카라We would rather not react to or write about issues that create disharmony or disturb the communal fabric of society,바카라 Khalid says. India Tomorrow, a sister concern of Dawat, has a similar approach. 바카라We do not rely on news reports by agencies, but physically visit places we write about. This, despite the fact that we operate under several constraints,바카라 says Syed Khalique Ahmed, editor of India Tomorrow.
Needless to say, the points of view of media outlets owned and run by the marginalised, are in sharp contrast with RSS mouthpieces like the Organiser and Panchjanya, even though they seem to have a lesser degree of conviction about BJP improving upon its 2017 performance. The January 23 issue of Organiser features an interview with Manipur CM N. Biren Singh, in which he declares his poll plank as 바카라development, delivery and harmonious coexistence바카라. Treading cautiously in the editorial, Prafulla Ketkar sees the elections in the five states바카라UP, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa and Punjab바카라as a complex mix of local, regional and national issues. The BJP will contest in all 60 seats in Manipur and Organiser predicts 40-plus seats for the party. Ketkar, however, underlines that the outcome of the elections will depend a great deal on 바카라local considerations and performance of state governments and MLAs바카라. He writes that as a cadre-based party that continuously experiments with its outreach through technology, the BJP was better prepared for campaigning during the pandemic, often setting larger election narratives.
An analysis by Kishore Kumar Malviya in the same issue shines light on the voters바카라 perennial paradox of choice: 바카라choosing the best of the worst or none바카라. He sees the UP elections as a proxy of what we should expect when the country goes to polls two years later. With 80 Lok Sabha seats, the battle for UP is both the 바카라barometer바카라 and 바카라rainmaker바카라 for the 2024 general elections. Echoing Ketkar, Malviya writes that the BJP바카라s twin planks in UP are likely to remain development and바카라no prize for guessing바카라Hindutva. Having delivered its promise to construct Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the BJP has made its intention quite clear on Kashi and Mathura. Isn바카라t it a trump card in the party바카라s arsenal, an arrow in its quiver that it can pull out at will when everything else fails? Was it for nothing that the PM recently photographed himself showering flower petals on workers who built the Kashi-Vishwanath Corridor, and of sharing a meal with them? 바카라Election issues are like bubbles. We mustn바카라t make too much of what the parties talk about before the polls. No matter what the BJP says or does, we should never forget it champions diversionary tactics and is a pro at image-building,바카라 Khalid says.
Besides development, BJP바카라s poll planks across the five states are variations on the themes of antodaya (the rise of the last person), suraksha (security) and samman (dignity). In the four states where it is in power, the party is confident of being re-elected. In the 40-member Goa assembly, it hopes to get 22-plus seats. In his cover interview to Organiser (February 6), BJP바카라s face in Goa, CM Pramod Sawant, says: 바카라With the help of the central government, the double-engine government in the state has carried out a quantum of development in Goa in eight years that didn바카라t happen in the previous 50.바카라 Asked about his achievements, he enlists: 바카라Security, tap water in every house and end to open-defecation.바카라
The key issue for the BJP in this election is making Goa swayampurna (self-reliant), as the Organiser highlights. Sawant promises if his government is re-elected, mining activities and ore extraction, which were stopped in the state in 2012, will resume 바카라on a large-scale바카라. At the same time, he makes it clear that he will also promote 바카라temple tourism바카라 to showcase the state바카라s 바카라real culture바카라. By throwing its hat in Goa, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, with its slogan of 바카라Goenchi Navi Sakal (Goa바카라s New Dawn)바카라, has made the battle in the state tough for the ruling party. In his analysis, Giririaj Pai acknowledges the emergence of TMC as a major player in Goa, with its 바카라hoarding blitzkrieg that took the state by storm바카라. The highlight of the latest issue of Organiser, however, is a four-page analysis on UP, titled, 바카라The Monk Who Has Moved Mountain바카라, in which Pankaj Jagannath Jayswal extols Yogi for showing 바카라extraordinary commitment to obliterate backwardness and bring the state of 22 crore-plus people on the fast track of development through his mantra of 바카라Reform, Perform, Transform바카라. UP, the Bimaru state, has become socio-economically progressive, he writes.
Panchjanya바카라s line is not too different. Its January 16 issue features Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami on the cover. The weekly lauds him for taking 바카라550 decisions in six months바카라. Singh tells Panchjanya editor Hitesh Shankar and Uttarakhand bureau chief Dinesh Mansera that nationalism and Hindutva 바카라run in his blood and course through his veins바카라.
In its latest issue (February 6), it strikes a note of optimism about BJP making inroads in Punjab, where Dalit Sikh Charanjit Singh Channi is the Congress바카라 CM face.
When Modi had 바카라parachuted바카라 Yogi and made him the UP CM, it was explained away as an experiment to give positions of authority to those who came with no mandate. This experiment was repeated in Maharashtra when they put Devendra Fadnavis in the saddle. Khalid says: 바카라Why did all these men have to be from the upper caste? Mayawati is accused of politics of identity, but this selective selection too reeks of the same.바카라 If BJP sees itself as an 바카라election-winning machine바카라, Khalid wonders what would happen if this machie were to 바카라run out of fuel바카라?
The answer will be known on March 10.
(This appeared in the print edition as "The Other Voices")
