Unity바카라�s Field Test

The BJP drove into western UP, including Kairana, on the wheels of development and Hindutva. Now that a section feels 바카라�development바카라� has been derailed, it바카라�s the durability of Hindutva that is under question. A combined opposition has fielded a Muslim candidate against the BJP, which would ordinarily have been an ideal situation for the Hindutva party to polarise the electorate along Hindu-Muslim lines. Clearly, the Kairana bypoll will test the Hindutva wheel and the opposition바카라�s ability to dismantle it by coming together.

바카라�There is anti-incumbency across castes as people feel the government didn바카라�t fulfil its promises, and the gap can바카라�t be sealed with Hindu sentiment alone. That바카라�s the hallmark of this election,바카라� says Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Sudhir Panwar, who has been campaigning for the united opposition candidate, Tabassum Hasan, a former SP leader. This dynamic has not just brought SP, the BSP, the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) together, but also emboldened them to field Hasan, a Gujjar Muslim woman, on an RLD ticket. Since the RLD draws sustenance predominantly from Jats, and it was in the Jat-dominated villages that the 2013 riots occurred, her selection is about political signalling. 바카라�It was a collective decision of mine and (former UP CM) Akhilesh Yadav, which we also discussed with other partners,바카라� says RLD leader and former Mathura MP Jayant Chaudhary.

Kairana has 1.8 lakh Jat and 5.2 lakh Muslim voters. Muslims are not strangers to the RLD, but the SP and the BSP have weaned them away. 바카라�If we reinforce the idea that Hindus won바카라�t vote for Muslim candidates and make Muslim exclusion from politics the new normal, then we would have to question what we really stand for,바카라� Chaudhary says. If Hasan wins, Kairana and its neighbourhood will no longer be seen through the prism of riots. If not, it would demonstrate the RLD바카라�s inability to transfer Jat votes to its alliance partners. On the other hand, if the BJP retains the Jat votebank, it would mean the party can still create a Hindu monolith and head for the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and 2019 polls with an invincible aura against the Congress. 바카라�The pressure on us is from the bottom. Even if the parties fight over minutiae, our workers and those who want to vote for us are cem­enting this alliance,바카라� Chaudhary says.

Indeed, what makes this a high-stakes bypoll is this attempt to not just cobble tog­ether diverse identities, but bridge the Hindu-Muslim divide as well. 바카라�Supporting the BJP led to political isolation, the Jats feel,바카라� says Kuldeep Malik, a young Jat farmer from riot-hit Lak, who admits his community wants the BJP바카라�the party he supports바카라�cut down to size. 바카라�They will gather under the hand pump (the RLD바카라�s election symbol) to save RLD chief Ajit Singh from political obscurity.바카라�

Jat farmer Veersen says, 바카라�We can only see the hand pump, not the Muslim face behind it.바카라� Another Jat Jaswant Singh says, 바카라�We would never have voted for the SP even though the BJP, which we had voted the last time, didn바카라�t help us with the riot-­related cases filed against our young men. The RLD helped us rebuild ties with Muslims and that바카라�s a relief.바카라�

But how many are really enthusiastic about a bypoll that cannot make or break the 2014 outcome? For Muslims, the alliance is a way out of political obscurity since the BJP바카라�s rise. 바카라�Ramzan or sowing season, Hindu or Muslim candidate바카라�our village will only vote for bhaichara. The Dalits are also with us,바카라� says Zulfiqar, a Rangad or Muslim Rajput from Bunta village.

Mohan Lal, village head of Khedki in Shamli district, represents another key component of the alliance, the BSP, whose supremo Mayawati has asked the region바카라�s 2.25 lakh Dalits to support Hasan. 바카라�This alliance is our attempt to send a signal for 2019 and bridge the gap between social groups. If we lose, it would put a question mark on whether any alliance can happen in 2019,바카라� he says. Dalits, especially Chamars and Jatavs chafing under BJP rule, say they will back the alliance. The ban on transporting cattle for slaughter hit their livelihood and anti-reservation rhetoric threatens their prospects. The Bhim Army바카라�s emergence in neighbouring Saharanpur in 2016 and its leader Chandershekhar Azad바카라�s continued imp­risonment is another factor prompting Dalits to show they can swing elections.

The BJP candidate is Mriganka Singh, whose father Hukum Singh was a Gujjar leader with a following beyond Kairana바카라�s 1.2 lakh Gujjar and 1 lakh Saini voters. Not atypical for this region, Hasan and Mriganka share a common great-grandfather. The Gujjars say they have assured Mriganka their support. 바카라�The alliance candidate may be Gujjar, but she doesn바카라�t even dare enter this village,바카라� says Ramvir Kashyap of Kandela village, considered a BJP stronghold. As Hukum Singh바카라�s death prompted this bypoll, some sympathy votes too may come Mriganka바카라�s way.

Interestingly, BJP campaigners too have been talking of Hindu-Muslim unity바카라�a sign, perhaps, of realising that caste can trump religion in western UP. 바카라�Mriganka Singh is our buaji. Barring the Jats, all communities in the entire constituency are with her,바카라� says Madan Singh Chauhan of Jagatpur, a Gujjar-dominated village.

In Shamli town, the 2016 surgical strike in Pakistan, UP바카라�s crime-fighting tactics, free cooking gas for poor households, Swa­chh Bharat toilets, demonetisation and PM Narendra Modi바카라�s foreign outreach are creating a narrative favourable to the BJP. It is among farmers that Hindutva바카라�s app­eal has dimmed due to delays in clearing sugarcane dues, but it remains to be seen whether this affects just the Jats or the Gujjar farmers as well.

The BJP, no doubt, is keen to retain the seat it won in 2014 and has expanded ­beyond its elite-caste Brahmin-Bania-Thakur base바카라�numerically small, but with a disproportionate power to influence narratives across the society. Non-elite castes such as Gujjar, Kashyap, Saini, Valmiki, Kori, Jogi and Jat too have supported BJP in the recent polls. 바카라�We have reached out to all as this is the last election here before 2019,바카라� says Mriganka. 바카라�Every social group will vote for us. We must win.바카라�

The critical factor in Kairana will possibly be the 15 to 20 per cent floating voters. Maybe that바카라�s why PM Modi has chosen to visit nearby Baghpat a day bef­ore voting. In this scenario, where various social groups are trying to find a new equilibrium, the effect of his appeals will be tested too.

By Pragya Singh in Kairana