Since joining the BJP in December last year, former Trinamool Congress heavyweight Suvendu Adhikari has made repeated appeals before Left supporters to vote for the BJP in the impending assembly polls so that they can vote freely for their own parties in the 2023 panchayat elections when the new BJP government in West Bengal would ensure free and fair polling. It바카라s a novel approach.
On the other hand, since January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah started taking digs at the Left leadership for ruining the state바카라s economy and distorting its 바카라original culture바카라 by indulging in 바카라appeasement politics바카라.
There is a reason why the BJP is according importance to the Left and taking up a two-pronged strategy to win over their supporters바카라its 2019 Lok Sabha election success in Bengal was built on Left supporters shifting votes to the BJP to take on the TMC. Now that the Left is trying to revive itself바카라with a vigorous street campaign and an alliance with the Congress and Muslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui바카라s Indian Secular Front바카라the BJP is worried. If the Left manages to wrest back a portion of their traditional votes, it could hurt BJP prospects.
ALSO READ:
Going by the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the difference between the TMC and the BJP바카라s vote share was of only three percentage points. It is close, both parties agree, and a third force could play spoiler for one or the other, especially in a season when voters and leaders are switching allegiance swiftly.
The BJP has more chances of suffering from the third front바카라s performance, says a state BJP leader, arguing that the possibility of a section shifting their votes back to the Left cannot be ruled out. 바카라Many Left supporters who gathered under the BJP바카라s banner to take on local TMC leaders are disappointed to see the same man they had a grudge against in the BJP. The BJP바카라s mass induction, while strengthening the leadership, may well weaken the support base,바카라 says a BJP Lok Sabha MP.
The steady trickle of inducting TMC leaders바카라at last count, over three dozen MLAs, ministers, MPs and former MLAs have joined the BJP since 2019, the flow thickening after Suvendu Adhikari joined up바카라has not gone down well with a section of BJP old-timers, especially those with an RSS background. But it is the probable impact of these new leaders on Left supporters that keeps a section of the BJP leadership worried.
ALSO READ:
There are other complex equations that no side can claim to be master of. Would the Matua-Namasudra refugees, who overwhelmingly voted the BJP in 2019, buying into the promise of the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, stick by them still, now that the BJP has failed to deliver? Would the TMC바카라s campaign among the tribal communities, supporting a separate religious code for Sarna dharma in the Census, impact the BJP바카라s strong base among tribals? How will the desertion of heavyweights affect TMC?
바카라It바카라s going to be one of the most complicated elections the state has ever seen. There are innumerable equations that can change a party바카라s vote share in different localities,바카라 says psephologist Biswanath Chakraborty.
The BJP in Bengal is banking on four factors바카라anti-incumbency against Mamata Banerjee바카라s 10-year rule, the perceived popularity of Prime Minister Modi, the Hindutva wave created by the RSS and other organisations and the firepower of its human and material resources바카라to offset the two weaknesses troubling the party: organisational deficiencies and an alleged cultural disconnect.
One of the BJP바카라s prime slogans in Bengal바카라바카라Lokkhyo Shonar Bangla바카라바카라or 바카라Target Golden Bengal바카라, promises to restore Bengal바카라s glorious economic past. During his Brigade Parade Ground rally in Calcutta on March 7, Modi tried to sum it up: 바카라We will bring in the real change that means education and employment opportunities, turning Bengal into a place appropriate for business and drawing investment, building modern infrastructure befitting the 21st century and creating opportunities for the poorest of the poor. We will bring back to Bengal whatever have been taken away from her.바카라
Illegal infiltration, a dominant campaign issue of the BJP, is addressed with another prominent slogan: 바카라Prevent West Bengal for turning into West Bangladesh바카라. Senior BJP leaders, including state president Dilip Ghosh, state general secretary Sayantan Basu and refugee cell chief Mohit Ray have been highlighting how the Muslim population in Bengal increased from 19.25 per cent in 1947 to 27.01 per cent in 2011, how from having one Muslim-majority district, Murshidabad, at the time of Partition, Bengal now has three Muslim-majority districts, and how this increase is leading succeeding state governments to indulge in the politics of appeasement, even at the cost of letting Islamic fundamentalism rear its head.
ALSO READ:
바카라We will bring an end to corruption, politics of appeasement and infiltration,바카라 Modi promised, accusing past regimes of the Congress, the Left and the present TMC of encouraging infiltration to consolidate their votebank.
The TMC, while trying to remind people of the good work of the state government, is also working hard to intensify sentiments against the Centre, especially over the recent hike in fuel prices. It has cited the BJP바카라s mobilisation of leaders from outside the state as an incursion of 바카라outsiders바카라 and a desperate effort to counter Mamata바카라s popularity amongst the masses.
TMC Rajya Sabha leader Derek O바카라Brien wrote on Twitter: 바카라33 days, 8 phases, 22 Central ministers, 6 chief ministers, 3 central agencies, 10s of thousands of forces, Infinity money/media VERSUS One woman in a Hawaii chappal.바카라
Udayan Bandyopadhyay, a teacher of political science, thinks that despite leaders from all parties joining the BJP, the party바카라s vote share was likely to come down from its Lok Sabha tally of 40 per cent. 바카라The TMC seems to have recovered some lost ground through certain recent government initiatives, while disaffection towards the BJP has been growing due to the Centre바카라s policies,바카라 he says. 바카라One should not forget that the TMC has created its own beneficiary base with social welfare programmes and their vote share did not reduce even in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections,바카라 he adds.
ALSO READ:
The BJP바카라s biggest handicap is, of course, a most discussed one바카라it just doesn바카라t have a comparative political personality in Bengal to match Mamata Banerjee. Results of at least four opinion polls released in February and March has shown Mamata as the preferred chief ministerial face and predicted her returning to power with a thin majority.
ALSO READ:
However, according to political analyst Sajjan Kumar, who authored a recently-published survey report on the coming elections, a strong wing of anti-incumbency nullifies all other factors and the BJP is all set to grab power for being 바카라at the right place at the right time바카라.
ALSO READ:
바카라Based on the collation of entire field data and narratives in all 294 assembly constituencies, we are confident that the BJP is going to win quite comfortably, its organisational weaknesses notwithstanding. This is primarily바카라on account of the undercurrent of an intense anti-incumbency sentiment running across the state. Hence, BJP emerged as the default beneficiary,바카라 he says. Kumar rules out any recent development, such as the TMC government바카라s mass outreach programmes and new political formations, as having a substantial impact on the results.
ALSO READ:
바카라The field narratives revealed an intense desire for change, wherein the degree of anti-incumbency seemed irreversible. Therefore, issues like leadership, candidate profile, organisational presence or weaknesses don바카라t appear to reverse the dynamics that we witnessed until December 2020,바카라 the report says. For all the defections it has engineered, for all the issues it has raised바카라from corruption and nepotism to appeasement and lawlessness바카라a general mood of anti-incumbency may be the BJP바카라s best ally in Bengal.
By Snigdhendu Bhattacharya in Calcutta
