For over two decades, Israel바카라s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the world about Iran바카라s nuclear ambitions and portrayed it as an existential threat to Israel and a menace to world peace. Now Netanyahu has finally acted on his strategic obsession with a devastating assault that has battered Iran and wiped out much of its military leadership. But is Iran바카라s nuclear programme just an excuse to reshape the power balance in West Asia, with the tacit approval of Washington and perhaps with the direct involvement of the US? The situation remains fluid at the time of writing, and the region is on the brink of unprecedented, perhaps catastrophic, changes that would transform West Asia.
US President Donald Trump is weighing his options. He is keeping the world, and especially Iran, on edge. In fact, US aircraft carriers and heavy military assets have been repositioned in the Eastern Mediterranean바카라unmistakable signs of preparation are visible. In typical Trump style, the US President is orchestrating a high-stakes spectacle, using suspense as a tool of pressure. But while he may be hoping to force Iran back to the negotiating table, Tehran바카라proud and defiant바카라has made it clear that it will not talk under the pressure of attacks, threats and gunships.
The success of Israel바카라s military campaign in the last five days has led to a buzz about a regime change and the taking out of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran바카라s Supreme Leader. Trump demanded on social media that Iran 바카라surrender unconditionally바카라 and that the US knows Khamenei바카라s location. The Ayatollah바카라s cryptic reply was: 바카라the battle begins바카라.
The implication of the USA바카라s direct entry and whether Netanyahu바카라s end goal has shifted from eliminating Iran바카라s nuclear threat to regime change is not clear. It certainly won바카라t be boots on the ground for either the US or Israel. Will destroying Iran바카라s nuclear facilities and weakening its military be enough for Tel Aviv and Washington? Trump does not want to be bogged down in Iran. Russia and China, both staunch friends of Iran, have so far watched helplessly, calling for de-escalation. Both countries have major energy, defence and economic agreements with Iran and risk losing all that to the US, which can decide on war and peace.
America바카라s Gulf allies바카라Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Oman바카라have all strongly condemned Israel바카라s unprovoked attack on Iran. The Arab world is concerned about the fallout of the war and fear that the US joining Israel바카라s efforts would lead to major disruptions. Earlier, Iran had reached out to these countries to get Trump to dissuade Netanyahu. But now that narrow window of opportunity is past and the battle lines have been drawn, unless the mercurial Trump changes his mind.
Iran has been holding its fire against the 40,000 American troops stationed across the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. But should the US enter, it too will come under attack. Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz to pin American warships in the Persian Gulf. Around 3,000 ships ply each month carrying oil and energy supplies from the region. Disruptions will shake up the oil market.
Iran is at its Weakest
Israel바카라s generals had planned the operation over the last eight months. A weakened Iran created the most favourable condition to strike. Battered by years of sanctions and weakened militarily, Iran is at its most vulnerable now. Israel had destroyed much of Iran바카라s air defence system in last year바카라s tit-for-tat strikes. At the same time, following the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, Israel바카라s reputation as a well-oiled military machine and the foremost military power in the region grew. Its precision attacks, and use of technology and AI to eliminate 바카라enemies바카라바카라sometimes through simple devices like pagers, as in Beirut바카라gave the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) a boost. Israel had moved with speed and clarity of purpose to dismantle its immediate enemies and Iranian proxies. With Hezbollah almost decimated, Hamas largely neutralised, Syria바카라s Bashar Asad바카라s regime no longer in control, Russia engaged in its war with Ukraine, and Iran exposed and vulnerable, Israel saw an opportunity to reset the regional order. Backed by American support and emboldened by the disarray among its adversaries, Netanyahu believed it was time to assert the Zionist state as the pre-eminent military and political power in the Middle East.
Significantly, Israel바카라s military operation is code-named Operation Rising Lion, a reference from the Hebrew Bible, that appeals to religious-minded Israelis and frames the war in the context of a self-righteous nation fighting evil.
Immediate Provocation
Israel claims that its attack on Iran was to pre-empt Tehran바카라s bid to have a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu said that Iran바카라s nuclear programme posed an 바카라existential threat바카라 to the Zionist state. Israel declared, with no evidence, that Iran was weeks away from assembling at least nine nuclear bombs. The Americans were informed and appeared to have taken Israel바카라s word for it and played to Netanyahu바카라s tune. Yet, the US intelligence reports refuted these claims, saying Iran would take at least three years to be able to have the bomb and the missile system to deliver. It suited Trump to ignore the report.
Many suspect that Netanyahu wanted to sabotage the US-Iran negotiations that did not appear to his liking. Iranian diplomats have always maintained that Israel is nervous about any sign of rapprochement between the US and Iran.
바카라It is obvious that Netanyahu wanted to abort the 6th round of US-Iran talks in Oman바카라due on June 15바카라by attacking Iran on June 13. It is equally obvious that Netanyahu is not telling the truth about the reason for his aggressive action. He is too intelligent not to know that the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did prevent Iran from making a bomb,바카라 says K. P. Fabian, former Indian diplomat who tracks West Asia minutely. 바카라Netanyahu wants Israel to emerge as the hegemon in the region, and hence, rival Iran should be crushed. He also has his own political difficulties,바카라 adds Fabian.
Israel was aided by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)바카라s recent report that Iran has not kept its commitment to allow the IAEA team access to all its nuclear facilities. But after the US walked away from the nuclear deal in 2018바카라during Trump바카라s first term in office바카라Iran does not feel obligated to abide by the pact it earlier scrupulously followed. The JCPOA, as the 2015 Obama-era nuclear deal is referred to, was a landmark agreement by which Iran promised to open all its facilities for inspection by the IAEA, in return for lifting of crippling sanctions on the country.
Iran바카라s nuclear programme began much before the Iranian Revolution, in the 1950s with America바카라s help. The Shah of Iran was then a close ally of the US and most Western powers. The nuclear programme accelerated in the 1970s when two civilian power reactors were planned. There was a break during the Revolution of 1979, but it resumed during the Iran-Iraq war. Iran says its nuclear programme was never intended for nuclear weapons. On June 16, Iran바카라s President Masoud Pezeshkian again declared that his country was against nuclear weapons, but has the right to nuclear energy. As a signatory of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Iran is obliged not to make weapons-grade uranium. He reminded the world about Khamenei바카라s edict or fatwa against weapons of mass destruction. But this week, Iran threatened to walk away from its NPT obligations that would give it the freedom of pursuing its nuclear weapons programme.
Trump바카라s Double Talk
Trump바카라s MAGA (Make America Great Again) base is shaken with indications that the US may get directly involved and join Israel to destroy Iran바카라s nuclear facilities. So far, according to the IAEA, air strikes have substantially damaged Iran바카라s overground nuclear facilities. However, Israel does not have either the heavy bunker-buster bombs needed to penetrate the underground Fordow nuclear facility hidden deep in the mountains. The B2 aircraft, needed to carry the bombs, are again available only with the US. That바카라s why Trump perhaps wants to join Israel바카라s operations. But active involvement is not what hardline isolationists among Trump바카라s support base want. They see it as a betrayal of his 바카라America First바카라 stance. Yet, many traditional Republicans see Trump바카라s decision not as a deviation, but a strategic opportunity to finally dismantle Iran바카라s nuclear infrastructure. MAGA loyalists voiced concern about being dragged into another endless conflict, including Vice President J. D. Vance, who initially objected but later fell in line with Trump. The older Republican Party members believed a showdown with Tehran was long overdue, and aligning with Israel would serve national security interests and make Israel a safer place.
Should USA enter the war, it too will come under attack. Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz to pin American warships in the Persian Gulf. Around 3,000 ships ply each month carrying oil from the region. Disruptions will shake up the oil market.
Iran did not anticipate Israel바카라s attack that fateful Friday. Despite repeated threats from Netanyahu and his senior ministers, Tehran was confident that Israel would wait till after the next round of nuclear talks between the US Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Tehran바카라s negotiators scheduled for June 15 in Oman. And Iran was careless.
A report by The New York Times from Tehran, after the June 13 attack, said that Iran바카라s senior military commanders did not shelter in safe houses and stayed in their own homes, confident there would be no action. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards바카라 aerospace unit, was at an emergency war meeting in a military base in Tehran and was killed with several others when Israel struck. That night Israel took out two key figures that could lead Iran바카라s counter attack바카라Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran바카라s military, and Hossein Salami, the head of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Between 10 and 20 commanders died, leaving the country바카라s military command and control structure decapitated. It took more than 12 hours for the defence forces to re-group and launch hundreds of drones into Israel.
Iran바카라s Enemy Within
It is well known that the Khamenei regime is unpopular among large sections of Iranians. Mainly because of the dire economic situation and high inflation, combined with shrinking job opportunities. The harsh crackdown on protesters바카라after Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was killed for not following the strict hijab rules in 2022바카라continues to rankle. The enemy within remains a threat to the leadership. Moreover, Mossad, Israel바카라s spy agency, has penetrated deep inside Iran, recruiting local agents who smuggled weapons into the country ahead of the attack. Cars have exploded across Tehran, spreading panic and suspicion among citizens.
The Islamic State has failed its people. No preparation was made for a war that appeared imminent to everyone else. Without air raid shelters or the ability to stop Israel바카라s continuous hammering from the skies, citizens were left to fend for themselves. Most tried to flee the capital city and escape to the countryside. People took to social media to mock the government바카라s helplessness.
Is Regime Change an Option?
Playing into the people바카라s anger against the state, Netanyahu spoke directly to the Iranians through video messages in English after the attacks. 바카라The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,바카라 he said. If the theocratic regime is unpopular, Netanyahu is as much despised for the IDF바카라s action against civilians in Gaza, and now with over 200 deaths, mostly civilians in Iran. Israel is hitting out everywhere, including the state-run television building in the middle of a news broadcast. Iranians are a proud people and however much they dislike their rulers, they will not turn against the regime in a time of crisis.
Trump has boasted that he knows where Khamenei is located, but will let him be. The US knows from its disastrous interventions in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan that regime change without a credible leadership in place is dangerous. French President Emmanuel Macron has warned against bringing down the Iranian government. 바카라The biggest error would be to use military strikes to change the regime because it would then be chaos,바카라 Macron said.
