Ever since the summer of May 1998, when India conducted five nuclear tests deep inside the Rajasthan desert at Pokhran to declare itself a nuclear power, it was not Pakistan but, surprisingly, China that was offered as the prime reason and motivation. Since then, the northern neighbour has loomed large in India바카라s security calculus.
The following decades saw Sino-Indian ties pass through all manner of contrary stages바카라beginning from a strategic partnership, to brinkmanship on a disputed border that almost led to a war-like situation. The successful resolution of the recent standoff at Doklam and the subsequent close cooperation at the BRICS Summit in Xiamen in China notwithstanding, there is nothing to suggest that either side has decided to lower their guard.
The much-talked about, proposed quadrilateral arrangement between India, the United States, Japan and Australia, that could pave the way for a closer strategic embrace between New Delhi and Washington as well as stronger ties with some key American allies in Asia, now comes as a new sensitive point. How does India go ahead with it and negotiate a rising and assertive China?
If proponents of a close Indo-American strategic partnership are keen that this could be the best option to deal with Beijing and its powerful lea-der, Xi Jinping, then questions are also being raised on India바카라s sovereign foreign policy choice. Others are asking on how 바카라time-tested바카라 ally Russia is responding to such developments that steadily have been bringing New Delhi closer to Washington.
바카라Moscow will not applaud it, but neither will it panic,바카라 says Dmitri Trenin, director of the Moscow Carnegie Centre. He adds the proposed 바카라alliance of democracies바카라 will probably be seen as a geopolitical construct led by the US focused on keeping China in check.
Former Indian ambassador to Russia P.S. Raghavan shares this view. 바카라Russia has been watching the Indo-US strategic partnership grow since the early 2000s, and understands perfectly well that a major driver of it is the objective of counterbalancing China바카라s growing assertiveness in its neighbourhood and Beijing바카라s expanding geopolitical footprint.바카라
According to him, this objective should not worry Russia바카라while it is extensively tied up with China today, both economically and politically, it would not be unhappy that some other forces are working to prevent China from becoming 바카라too big바카라 and 바카라too overbearing바카라.
The proposed quadrilateral meeting among the four is likely to be held next week in Philippines, where major powers are meeting for the East Asia Summit. Significantly, it falls as part of a five-nation Asia tour of US President Donald Trump.
President Trump바카라s current 바카라voyage바카라, says former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal, is important as it comes at a time when he is embracing India as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region as a bulwark against China바카라s expansionist moves there.
바카라It is part of the open regional security architecture that we had been talking about for a long time,바카라 says Sibal, a strong supporter of close Indo-US ties as a counter to Beijing바카라s rising clout. 바카라At the moment it is not an alliance as there are no legal agreements. It is more a tactical arrangement,바카라 adds the former foreign secretary.
바카라The problem is that we need to move beyond demonstration,바카라 says Raghavan. He points out that a quadrilateral needs continued coherence of purpose and willingness to be in for the long haul. 바카라In the absence of either, it will not trouble China or anyone else,바카라 he adds. Raghavan argues that 바카라the Quad is only as good as its weakest link바카라and that is Australia, with its extensive economic interdependence with China바카라.
This worries South Block mandarins as well and could well be a reason why New Delhi is still wary about a Quadrilateral arrangement involving Australia. India would prefer a trilateral arrangement and to deal with Australia bilaterally rather than with others.
China, usually worried about any US-led initiative in Asia, however, sees a sense of disunity among the four partners. Confident of its growing role at the world stage, Beijing is keen that it be seen as playing a positive role to deal with some major global challenges, including the nuclear issue involving North Korea. Naturally, it also wants to ensure that no serious grouping with a military undertone바카라and targeting Chinese interests바카라takes place in Asia. As part of this, it has argued against the 바카라Quad바카라, taking advantage of New Delhi바카라s reservations about including Australia and appealing to India바카라s tradition of pursuing an independent foreign policy.
India바카라s ambivalence about Australia being in this group stems from its past experience when, during a Malabar exercise in 2007 involving the four countries, a Labour party-led initiative in Australia forced it to withdraw from the quadrilateral naval drill to avoid hurting China바카라s feelings바카라as contributing to its insecurity of being encircled by adversaries.
No wonder then that none of the four, including India, is willing to call this a formal alliance yet, unsure as they are about its future. Even Trump has argued that close strategic partnership with India necessarily does not make it anti-China.
Others are still hopeful that a 바카라Quad바카라 will deliver a strong message to the leadership in Beijing. 바카라China will have to realise its ambition will not go unchallenged,바카라 says Sibal.
He argues: 바카라I can바카라t see a scenario where Australia will be too comfortable with the US withdrawing from the scene and allowing China to play a more assertive role in South China Sea and in the wider Asia-Pacific.바카라
Can such an arrangement impart a sense of comfort to Russia too?
바카라Russia would not be greatly unhappy about China바카라s wings being clipped,바카라 says Raghavan. He points out that Russia is increasingly in danger of becoming a junior partner of China in its geopolitical ambitions. 바카라Putin does not want Russia to be the junior partner of any country.바카라
Trenin, however, argues that while Moscow understands the China factor in the growing Indo-US ties, it also sees its downside that could adversely affect Russia바카라being eased out by the Americans from the Indian arms market. 바카라Yet, Moscow is still largely committed to a friendly and cooperative relationship with Delhi,바카라 says Trenin. 바카라Of course, Russia has no veto over India바카라s moves and vice versa,바카라 he says.
Despite talk of alliances and the US바카라 reassertion to claw back its influence in Asia and counter China바카라s increasing clout, most countries, including India, are still hedging their bet. This means that while many of them would like the US to be around, most are also cutting side deals with China, the big power near home. So, as the realignment of forces continue, 바카라red lines바카라 are also being set, as the Russians seem eager to convey to India.
According to Raghavan, Russia would fundamentally like to see a continuation of India retaining its foreign policy independence and, in defence cooperation, ensure that Russian technologies and IPR are not leaked to the West. It continues to suit Russia바카라s interest that India should develop into an independent 바카라pole바카라 in a multi-polar global order. 바카라So you can have partnerships, not alliances,바카라 says India바카라s former envoy to Russia.
As some current initiatives are likely to take a while to assume deinite shape, the continuing flux in the global world order is forcing most players in the Indo-Pacific region바카라housing the world바카라s fastest growing economies바카라to wait a while before making solid commitments.
