Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to tack on the highly modified foreign policy course begun by his Wuhan initiative with China. The outcome of Russian President Vladimir Putin바카라s visit has been dramatic: not only has the government set right India바카라s waning ties with Russia, it has also stood for reaffirming India바카라s strategic autonomy. This was a diplomatic masterstroke; Indian foreign policy seemed to have regained its rigour and our mandarins learnt to play the new global power game rather skilfully.
Visibly, the comfort level between Putin and Modi exuded the bonhomie gained after their six-hour informal 바카라agenda-less바카라 talks in Sochi last May when they had thrashed out most of the critical issues. PM Modi바카라s pronouncement that ties with Russia are 바카라top priority바카라 is a change from his earlier foreign policy team virtually dismissing Russia as a spent force. Interestingly, according to one former official, even Manmohan Singh, after years of hobnobbing with Washington, finally felt more at home in Moscow when he was there in October 2013 for the 14th annual summit.
Of course, the spotlight this time was on the procurement of the S바카라400 air defence system. But the contract deal was concluded without much fanfare and without giving any impression that New Delhi was under pressure from the US. Yet, only a single-line paragraph is devoted to the deal in the 550-word joint statement text, while the fate of other defence transactions바카라the four Krivak/Talwar frigates, 48 Mi-17 helicopters, 200 Ka-226 helicopters, and AK-103 assault rifles production바카라does not even figure.
New Delhi has approached the deal as a transactional one, driven not by geopolitics but by what it can get out of Russia. With that said, is India keen on turning around its ties with Russia in a big way? Not really. The decision to procure the S바카라400 system may have been triggered more by strategic compulsion than by necessity, as China바카라s early operational induction of the S바카라400 would have undermined India바카라s strategic deterrence, especially when the Indian Air Force is facing acute shortages of combat aircraft. Russia, however, has demonstrated masterly strategic prowess by reaping the benefits of playing on the India바카라China strategic rivalry, while at the same time tying the two countries바카라 fate closely towards Moscow vis-à-vis Washington for decades to come. And for Russia, the sale of the S바카라400 system was a big geopolitical feat.
The Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle game surely serves to offset America바카라s global influence바카라but New Delhi remains the weakest link in this. Russia바카라s sale of its top-of-the-line weapon system to China is worrying for India. The sale of more than $15 billion worth of weapons, including 10 upgraded Su-35 combat aircraft and a set of S바카라400 missile systems, was concluded in 2017. Moreover, seven Kamov Ka-32 multirole helicopters, among many other purchases, were finalised in 2016. Second, China바카라s reverse engineering abilities are well known, and it has reportedly acquired a new elemental technological capability to use tiny super microchips that could infiltrate an adversary바카라s system. Third, the Russia-China trade turnover reached $84 billion in 2017 while Russia-India trade was a paltry $10 billion, with an $8 billion balance in favour of Russia바카라finding an alternative payment system to skirt the dollar payment is likely to remain a challenge. And looking ahead, bilateral ties will be hamstrung by a lack of sufficient economic content. Putin has set a new target of $30 billion in bilateral trade, and mutual investment of $15 billion in each country, by 2025. He has also invited Modi to the 2019 Vladivostok Economic Forum as the chief guest, ostensibly to boost economic content.
On the strategic front, it is important to see to what extent Moscow has been able to capitalise on New Delhi바카라s strategic ambivalence over the 바카라Indo-Pacific바카라, 바카라quad formulation바카라 and others. The joint statement with Russia supports the idea of a regional security architecture that provides 바카라equal and indivisible security바카라 to all countries in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Any consultation on this issue would be made within the framework of the East Asian Summit and other multilateral fora such as BRICS, G20, SCO and RIC. It is unclear whether Moscow has nudged New Delhi on Afghanistan. The statement referred to both sides having agreed to work through the Moscow format and the SCO Contact Group on Afghanistan (both exclude the US) to find an early solution. The word 바카라Taliban바카라 is conspicuously missing from the text.
The two leaders also noted the importance of widening energy cooperation, with Indian companies buying stakes in Russian energy fields. Taking the long view, Putin has also invited Indian participation in the joint exploration of Russia바카라s Arctic shelf, with the belief that 바카라as the climate continues to change, the northern sea route will offer growing opportunities for ensuring reliable LNG supplies to the Indian and world markets.바카라 Good rhetorical appeals, perhaps, but India바카라s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has been involved in the exploration of the Sakhalin offshore fields, as well as northeast Siberia바카라s Vankorsky field, for years. It is time for Russia to offer India onshore oil and gas fields in eastern or western Siberia. Curiously, it is unclear why the result of the 2017 joint study on building gas pipeline supply routes from Russia and other countries to India is not being considered seriously.
Defence supplies are unlikely to remain the lynchpin sustaining the Indo-Russian friendship for long. For New Delhi, only a blockbuster deal with Russia on energy (both upstream and downstream cooperation), besides the prospect of laying the proposed $40 billion long-distance oil and gas pipeline, can turn around the trade prospect to exceed $100 billion. For its part, Russia can only use its energy as a powerful weapon to counter the threat of Western sanctions. Such a deal would be a watershed moment.
But this would require a clear vision and a sincere effort on Russia바카라s part to bring its strategic ties with both China and India into a single geopolitical alignment, abandoning the subtle game of extracting the maximum it can from its relations with the two Asian giants. Will Russia do that? Obviously, this would upset the existing international order, but that is another point altogether.
Meanwhile, a worthwhile agreement signed this time includes cooperation in outer space바카라Roscosmos바카라 willingness to assist ISRO for a manned spaceflight by 2022, and setting up an Indian monitoring and data collection station near Novosibirsk city in Siberia. Russia certainly matters to India바카라s national interest바카라something this government seems to have realised lately, for there is also an unequivocal national political consensus on maintaining good ties with Moscow.
What remains to be seen now is whether Modi will be able to handle the Americans with same astuteness. So far, the US reaction to the S바카라400 contract deal has been guarded바카라suggesting that its intentions in slapping sanctions on Russia is not aimed at damaging the interests of its 바카라allies or partners바카라, but to penalise Russia for its 바카라malign behaviour바카라, namely its activities in Ukraine and its alleged interference in American elections. In all probability, the S바카라400 contract deal will make India바카라s defining partnership with US even more robust. This is how the game is being played.
(The author is a former ambassador and an expert on strategic affairs)
