The Hint Of A Forked Tongue

A much revered religious leader in India and the West, the Dalai Lama counts among his admirers Hollywood stars, TV talk show hosts, royalty, leading political figures of key nations as well as ordinary Tibetans and people from other creeds. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 for highlighting the Tibetan cause through peaceful means and reconciliation.

Every year, large numbers of people travel to his residence in Dharamshala for an audience or simply to seek his blessings. When visiting abroad, his events get top media billing; auditoriums where he speaks usually spill over with people. Even some Chinese from the mainland, who have had the rare opportunity to meet him, cannot help but talk about his charisma.

But the world바카라�s adulation for the Dalai Lama has left unmoved the Communist leaders in Beijing, who continue to watch his every step with suspicion and regard him as a 바카라�splittist바카라�, a 바카라�wolf in a monk바카라�s robe바카라�바카라�more of a wily politician than a spiritual leader.

Ever since the Dalai Lama and his followers fled Lhasa in 1959 to take shelter in India and subsequently set up the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dha­ramshala, China has been implacably hostile towards the pontiff. However, over the past weeks, the acerbic exch­ange of words has got sharper. In a recent int­erview with American TV show host John Oliver, the Dalai Lama described Chinese hardliners as people who have some essential parts of their brain missing. Beijing responded pro­mptly, des­cribing him not only as som­e­one who encourages anti-China sep­­aratists but also as a 바카라�deceptive바카라� actor.

Observers feel Beijing바카라�s reaction stems from the growing nervousness among the Chinese establishment over the proposed April 4-13 visit of the Dalai Lama to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh.

That the Chinese focus is now firmly on Tawang became clear from the rem­arks of its former chief negotiator for boundary talks, Dai Bingguo, who said in an interview to the Chinese media last week that a possible settlement of the boundary was possible if India conceded Tawang to China, which in turn will allow the latter to show acc­ommodation in the western sector, perhaps in Aksai Chin.

바카라�What Dai Bingguo has stated has been China바카라�s formal position at least since the mid-1980s,바카라� says former foreign secretary Shyam Saran. According to him, it was around then that China formally shifted its stance from its earlier so-called 바카라�package proposal바카라�, which would have settled the boundary on the basis of 바카라�as is and where is바카라�바카라�repeated thus by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1982 to the former Indian ambassador to China, G. Parthasarathi. A reiteration of the formal Chinese position on the border issue, Saran says, should not be regarded as significant, since there is no substantive shift by Dai, neither a hardening nor softening of Beijing바카라�s stand.

바카라�However, the timing of the interview could be related to the news that the Dalai Lama will soon be visiting the historic Tawang monastery and offering prayers there,바카라� adds Saran.

Somewhat ominously, Beijing바카라�s rec­ent remarks have not only been against the Dalai Lama, but also less obliquely against New Delhi바카라�the Chinese fore­ign ministry and a host of their commentators have been cautioning India against allowing the Tibetan leader바카라�s visit to Tawang, as it would seriously damage future Sino-Indian relations.

But Saran points out that despite Chinese opposition, India cannot prevent the Dalai Lama from visiting Arunachal Pradesh, since it is reg­arded as an integral part of nat­ional territory, just like UP or Karnataka is. 바카라�Preventing him from going to Tawang, but not to any other part of India, would be acknowledging that the status of Arunachal Pradesh is indeed different from other parts of India,바카라� says Saran, adding that China needs to understand this rat­­ionale behind India바카라�s acceptance of the Dalai Lama바카라�s visit to Tawang.

Yet, the Dalai Lama has been to Tawang before, in 2009. So why is China cooking up this fuss? Ind­eed, what explains its emphasis on India ceding Tawang as part of the boundary settlement? During ear­lier negotiations, the Beijing leadership had accepted New Delhi바카라�s arg­­ument that areas along the boundary that have settled population cannot be part of the negotiation.

바카라�It is true that in concluding the 바카라�Political Parameters바카라� and 바카라�Guiding Principles바카라� for the settlement of bou­ndary issue in April 2005, China acc­epted the principle that settled pop­ulations would be a factor in determining the boundary alignment. Both sides were fully aware that this referred to Tawang, since it is the only border area with a significant settled population,바카라� says Saran. However, he points out that 바카라�since then, China has tried to walk back from the principle in the border negotiations, but this predates the Modi government바카라�.

So the question remains바카라�why are the Chinese going back on what they had agreed on earlier?

바카라�The Chinese position has been gradually hardening since 2007,바카라� says senior fellow at Delhi바카라�s Centre for Policy Research, Srinath Raghavan. He points out that it all began as an attempt to reg­ain some of the ground the Chinese had apparently conceded in the 2005 agreement on the matter of 바카라�settled populations바카라� etc. 바카라�That agreement hap­p­e­ned in a context where the Chinese bel­­ieved they could entice India to a strategic partnership. After the Indo-US nuclear deal, their position began to har­­den. There was also the context of unr­­est in Tibet ahead of the Beijing 2008 Oly­mpics,바카라� says Raghavan. He adds, 바카라�And Tibet is always an important factor in their thinking about the boundary.바카라�

What importance, though, has Taw­ang for China? China claims Arunachal Pradesh by arguing that there had been  historical ties bet­ween the Tawang monastery and Lhasa. Since Tibet is part of China, so should Arunachal Pra­desh, or, more precisely, Tawang. But experts also point to its strategic imp­ortance to Chinese policy planners.

바카라�Aksai Chin is far less important to China today, with the Lhasa railway and the Tibetan road system being put in place, than it was in 1962,바카라� says professor of international affairs at the Georgia University of Technology, John Garver. 바카라�On the other hand, a southern-extending salient around Tawang to Bhutan바카라�s east would place Bhutan, India바카라�s protectorate, between the Chumbi Valley to the west and Tawang salient to the east, thus adding difficulties to India바카라�s ability to defend its Northeast,바카라� says Garver.

He adds, 바카라�Could be the message from China is: don바카라�t expect a sweetheart deal from us. It바카라�s you, India, who is in a bind, and who needs to be nice to us, accommodate us. You better think about it.바카라�

바카라�There are a couple of things at work here,바카라� says Raghavan. 바카라�First, the Chi­nese have taken a tough line on mar­itime disputes. The assertiveness on our boundary is part of a larger trend in its policy. Second, the Chinese are watching India바카라�s ties not just with the US but also Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia etc. As India joins countervailing coalitions, there will be a pushback from the Chinese.바카라�

But Garver doubts if India can rely on the US under the Trump administration in the same way it did with Bush and Obama. 바카라�India has gone a considerable distance down the road of partnership with the US, much to Beijing바카라�s dismay. Now, India finds a radically unorthodox US administration, perhaps leaving it out on a limb.바카라�

Saran, however, argues that the tough Chinese stand stems not from close US-India ties but with its own perception that today it is a much stronger economic and military power than India. He feels the only way India can deal with an assertive China is by building stronger relations with the US and with countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia and Southeast Asian nations. 바카라�India will find itself more vulnerable to Chinese pressure if its network of relationships with other major and emerging powers were to weaken,바카라� says Saran.

As the debate among experts rages on the best way to deal with an assertive China, one thing is perhaps clear바카라�an armed conflict between the two Asian neighbours, with unpredictable consequences, is not in the interest of either side. Hopefuly, that would also be the sobering conclusion of the leadership in the two countries. Only then would they summon all the power in their disposal to avoid a situation that could throw the entire region into instability at best, and a ruinous future at worst.