America바카라s diplomatic clock on Afghanistan seems to be turning a full circle. Nearly two decades after the United States stitched up a multi-nation coalition to throw out the Taliban in the wake of the 9/11 terror attacks, the Donald Trump administration is making frantic efforts to bring the terrorist outfit to the negotiating table. His aim: to put up a framework for peace in the war-ravaged country that would enable him to pull out US troops.
But there is widespread fear that the US is conceding too much space to the Taliban, so that they are in a commanding position to shape Afghanistan바카라s future. The urgency on Washington바카라s part stems from Trump바카라s electoral promise of bringing US troops home by ending America바카라s longest war바카라a boost to his leadership credentials before he prepares to seek a second term in 2020.
Interestingly, the American move has been endorsed by China and Russia. But what is worrying India and others most is the effort the three countries made to bring Pakistan firmly back in the Afghan game.
So far, Pakistan was held responsible for much of the instability and violence in Afghanistan; as a result, it was relegated to the margins. But thanks to America바카라s eagerness to withdraw and Pakistan바카라s ability to deliver the Taliban to the talks-table, it appears to be back as a key arbiter on Afghan affairs. The US, China and Russia jointly welcomed Pakistan to a recent four-party consultation process that seeks to end the protracted war, with the Taliban in a menacing ascendancy.
바카라China, Russia and the US welcomes Pakistan joining the consultation and believe Pakistan can play an important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan,바카라 a US statement said. Pakistan바카라s Prime Minister Imran Khan is due to travel to Washington soon to hold talks with Trump on Afghanistan바카라s future and ways to strengthen US-Pakistan ties.
But many are questioning the unseemly haste in trying to patch up a deal with the Taliban, to ensure that the US forces do not withdraw from Afghanistan with a bloodied nose.
바카라The US바카라s attempt to make a pact with the Taliban will be counter-productive,바카라 warns Gautam Mukhopadhaya, India바카라s former ambassador to Kabul. He also feels that Washington has been 바카라hopelessly short-sighted바카라 to overlook the salutary role played by the duly-elected Afghan government towards the nation바카라s development.
Similar views are expressed by other observers. 바카라The process, as it is unfolding, is deeply flawed,바카라 says strategic writer Srinath Raghavan. 바카라If Afghan officials are attending inter-Afghan talks in their 바카라personal capacity바카라, it signals a total capitulation to the Taliban,바카라 he adds. Raghavan points out that the costly gains made after 2011, especially the constitution and a democratic process, are now on the chopping block. He says US policy is best understood as a 바카라decent interval바카라 approach, so long as there is some time after the US withdrawal, with a gradual worsening of the situation in Afghanistan. 바카라It saves America바카라s face.바카라
Russia and China, adds Raghavan, have their own interests in securing an early American exit and getting Pakistan to help 바카라stabilise바카라 the post- withdrawal situation in Afghanistan. 바카라This will put Pakistan in the driver바카라s seat. The history of Pakistan바카라s involvement in Afghanistan should clearly remind us on what is likely to come,바카라 Raghavan cautions.
The US and Pakistan had joined hands with some Gulf countries to create the Taliban from among the Pashtun Afghan students who grew up in the refugee camps in the Af-Pak border area, and who were indoctrinated in madrasas by fundamentalist Islamic preachers in the mid-바카라90s.
The Taliban바카라s presence in Afghanistan had turned the country stiflingly conservative and India was a neighbour adversely affected by a regime in Kabul that was tutored by Pakistan.
With the Taliban and Pakistan now back in the Afghan game with US support, Indian concerns on the evolving situation in Afghanistan seem quite well-founded.
The US바카라s bottom-line in Afghanistan seems to ensure that in future no terrorist attacks should target American interests from Afghan soil. It is also conveying to the Taliban and others that even after its withdrawal it continues to keep an intelligence presence in the country to monitor the developments. This could well be the core of its negotiations with the Taliban바카라the long-awaited withdrawal of American troops and assets might begin once this is assured.
Vivek Katju, former secretary in the MEA, who also served as India바카라s ambassador to Afghanistan, describes the American negotiating position as 바카라absurd바카라, even as he feels that India should have engaged with the Taliban, like other countries, to ensure it is not out of the loop in the Afghan developments. 바카라The whole world is talking to the Taliban. What do we gain by ignoring them?바카라 he asks. He too admits that the Americans were conceding too much to the Taliban. For instance, at the recent 바카라intra-Afghan바카라 meeting in Doha, the Taliban were the only ones which came as a 바카라group바카라, while all others, including key officials of the Afghan government, attended the meeting in their personal capacity. 바카라It looks more like the terms of a surrender being negotiated by the US,바카라 says Katju.
Many others also share the view that India should have engaged with the Taliban. But as Mukhopadhaya points out, while the Taliban is a player in Afghanistan, it cannot be allowed to call the shots on the future shape of the country. He also feels that the Taliban바카라s role in Afghanistan has been more hyped than is demanded by reality. Despite being criticised, he points out, the Afghan National Army had not conceded any important provincial capital to the Taliban, which has managed to control only 30 per cent of Afghanistan after its incessant campaigns of ultra-violence. the Taliban, he stresses, is also much hated and most non-Pashtun Afghans are suspicious of it since it is backed by Pakistan.
Mukhopadhaya expresses the hope that democracy and a comparatively open society have struck deep roots amongst Afghans in the past 18 years. Therefore, even if the Taliban tries to laterally intrude into the political centrestage by ignoring the constitution and the election process, it will be strongly resisted. He also feels that India, which continues to be very popular among different sections of Afghans, should support the elected government and the constitution that, despite heavy odds, have managed to bring significant changes.
Katju concurs with Mukhopadhaya about India바카라s enduring popularity in Afghanistan. But he feels that the ground reality is such that there is very little New Delhi could do to alter the current course.
Raghavan, too, is for a more proactive role for India, like convening a meeting of the Afghan groups. 바카라But it may be too late to make any serious headway,바카라 he admits.
No one expects the US바카라s protracted endgame in Afghanistan to be smooth. Some fear another long spell of violence and instability after the Americans withdraw. But, as Katju observes, there is also a positive note to it: 바카라Irrespective of how marginalised India may look now, no new regime in Kabul can afford to ignore it. It will have to engage with New Delhi for stability and development.바카라
Whether that optimism has any basis in reality will be proven by the latest contours of Afghanistan바카라s tortuous path to normality.
