For JD(S)-Congress Alliance, All바카라�s Well, But Only So Far

There was plenty of din all through September: a bitter exchange between Kumaraswamy and the BJP state president B.S. Yeddyurappa over the Oppo­sition바카라�s alleged attempts to topple his government, which had the CM threatening to release audio recordings of BJP leaders making offers to legislators for defection. If the BJP were to contest the legislative council polls, it would have had to get rival MLAs to cross-vote in its fav­our as it is short of eight votes to put up its own candidate. The JD(S)-Congress coalition has the support of 117 legislators (including two from small parties and an independent) in the current ass­embly of 222 members (two seats are vacant), while the BJP has 104.

By shying away from a contest, according to the ruling coalition, the BJP showed it was unsure of getting the numbers, and could even be nervous about possible cross-voting by its own legislators. But there are signs that the saffron party is still eyeing a shot at power in Karnataka even as it gears up for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The party claims it won바카라�t make att­empts to bring down the government, but won바카라�t be a bystander either if the coalition crumbles on its own. 바카라�In case a favourable situation arises, our options are still open,바카라� says Karnataka BJP spokesman Vaman Acharya. The CM, however, says the BJP is 바카라�daydreaming바카라�.

The rumblings within the coalition were first heard in the Congress바카라�it has about six ministerial berths to fill, which would need deft handling of the ambitions of local leaders. So far, it has managed to keep its flock together바카라�in particular, the siblings Ramesh and Satish Jarkiholi from Belgaum, who seemingly have a grouse against Karn­ataka water resources minister D.K. Shivakumar of the Congress exerting his influence in their turf. Shivakumar is battling problems on another front too, alleging political vendetta behind the Enforcement Directorate registering a money-laundering case against him last week. As one of the wealthiest legislators in the state, he had played a key role in bringing the JD(S)-Congress combine to power in May by thwarting the BJP바카라�s ­efforts to woo their legislators.

While the government has to manage various internal pressures, political obs­ervers say it faces no immediate threat as MLAs across party lines are wary of def­ections, and the elections that will naturally follow. For the BJP too, Karnataka is a key state for the Lok Sabha polls바카라�in 2014, the party had won 17 out of the 28 seats, while the Congress bagged nine and the JD(S) two. BJP insiders concede that many of their leaders aren바카라�t convinced about the urgency of looking for an opp­ortunity to form the state government and want to focus on the general elections instead. 바카라�Our central leadership wants us to win at least 20 Lok Sabha seats next year, a very reasonable target considering our past performance,바카라� says Acharya.

Harish Ramaswamy, who teaches political science at Karnatak University in Dharwad, reckons the ruling coalition바카라�s strategy of fighting the recent urban local body polls independently has paid off. 바카라�The urban civic polls have shown they have to consolidate their votes, and not break into the BJP바카라�s votes,바카라� he says. This week, the Congress central leadership firmed up a pact with the JD(S) for a pre-poll alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The next step would be a seat-sharing arrangement. 바카라�They (the coalition) are walking on a razor바카라�s edge. If they fall out, it will cost them the Lok Sabha elections,바카라� says Ramaswamy.

By Ajay Sukumaran in Bangalore