How Well Will Modi Factor Work In Karnataka?

The Congress can바카라�t afford to let the coa­lition slip away, but it has a problem managing its legislators바카라�there바카라�s either a threat of MLAs switching sides or complaints about the coalition partner. The BJP isn바카라�t hiding its desperation to see the H.D. Kumaraswamy government toppled, but won바카라�t admit to 바카라�Operation Kamal바카라�바카라�local sobriquet for getting rival MLAs to defect. Both parties corralled their legislators in plush hotels mid-­January to keep their headcount intact. But the fallout, much to the Congress바카라�s embarrassment, was the unsavoury episode of two of its partymen coming to blows at the holiday resort they were staying in, on the outskirts of Bangalore.

Political observers say the BJP바카라�s haste to form the government isn바카라�t surprising바카라�the party has been sore since the assembly polls last May, when it eme­rged as the single largest group in the 224-member assembly with 104 seats, but eight short of the halfway mark. The JD(S)-Congress government has survived periodic tantrums from its ranks and even scripted joint wins in the October bypolls, which forced the BJP on the backfoot. For the saffron party, Karnataka is the only state in the south where it can rustle up numbers in the Lok Sabha바카라�it holds 16 of the state바카라�s 28 seats. But  signs are it바카라�s  worried about losing that grip. 바카라�The BJP has to show it is still capable of bulldozing the Congress,바카라� says political analyst Harish Ramaswamy.  A BJP leader says, 바카라�Gett­ing 20-25 MPs from Karnataka is important. If you want to press them (the coa­lition), you can바카라�t keep them in power.바카라�

The catch, says commentator Sandeep Shastri, is that the party is relying on the Modi card and would be wary of being held responsible for a fall of government so close to elections. 바카라�They also face a stiff challenge in terms of the political arithmetic of the alliance,바카라� he says. The BJP still commands a chunk of the Lin­gayat vote, but a JD(S)-Congress ­alliance could, on paper, consolidate the OBC, minority and Dalit votes. 바카라�The question is whether this social coalition translates into transfer of votes or not,바카라� says Shastri. Alliance arithmetic won바카라�t automatically fetch votes, he points out.

Meanwhile, the Congress바카라�s woes stem from its internal bickering. Last month, four of its 80 MLAs바카라�Ramesh Jarkiholi, Mahesh Kumathalli, Umesh Jadhav and B. Nagendra바카라�stayed away from a legislative party meeting, raising concern over a defection. 바카라�They are luring our legislators by offering money and promising ministerial posts,바카라� Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah claimed at the meeting. The confusion in the Congress ranks, however, is nothing new. Jarkiholi, a party leader from Belgaum district, has struck a rebellious stance for several months. Jarkiholi, who has been at loggerheads with fellow party leader D.K. Shivakumar, lost his ministership last December, and was replaced by his brother Satish Jarkiholi.

BJP insiders say the party was counting on some Congress MLAs to take matters to the brink. 바카라�Even Siddara­maiah cannot tolerate this government,바카라� says BJP spokesman Vaman Acharya. 바카라�This government will collapse because of internal squabbles. We would have nothing to do with it, but once they collapse, what to do next would be our call.바카라�

Pointing to how various BJP leaders were speaking about an imminent change of government, Congress MP V.S. Ugrappa says, 바카라�When they don바카라�t have the strength, how can they make that claim, unless they go for 바카라�Operation Kamal바카라�. That바카라�s the indication, rather an admission, that they have been trying to do exactly that. B.S. Yeddyurappa is in a hurry to become CM once more, and the BJP바카라�s national leadership has its own reasons for trying to win more seats in Karnataka. But that won바카라�t happen.바카라�

With the May 2018 assembly polls, Karnataka바카라�s political contours emerged more clearly. The BJP바카라�s strength in northern Karnataka was still intact, while the Hindutva push had won over the coastal and central region. In the south, the JD(S) consolidated the Vokkaliga votes. In the eight months since, the coalition has had to deal with new pressures, not least of all a perception that the state바카라�s northern region was being neglected. Among the other challenges ahead, there is the delicate matter of a seat-sharing agreement between the alliance partners for the Lok Sabha polls바카라�the Congress is wary of JD(S) consolidating itself in the southern parts, where the two parties are fierce rivals. Already, there are signs of a tussle for the Mandya seat, a Vokkaliga bastion. By most accounts, the JD(S), which holds only two Lok Sabha seats, will push for at least 10 candidates this time.

Some reckon a Lok Sabha election is unlikely to stress their grassroots party networks as much as local elections do. 바카라�Cleverly, they did not fight the local ele­ctions as coalition partners, but went their separate ways,바카라� says Narayana A., who teaches political science at Bang­alore바카라�s Azim Premji University. 바카라�So, the larger picture emerging is that it is in the interest of both parties to go tog­ether. The BJP might not repeat its 2014 ­performance, but it may be too much to expect a steep decline. Much depends on how well the seat-sharing arran­gement goes.바카라� he says.

Besides, the Karnataka voter has alw­ays presented a mixed picture바카라�in 2013, for instance, the Congress won decisively in the assembly polls, but the BJP won 17 seats against the Congress바카라�s nine in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. 바카라�And yet, of the five southern states, Karnataka is the only one where they have a chance of bagging substantial numbers,바카라� says Shastri. 바카라�The BJP would be hoping for a windfall again, but it won바카라�t be easy. A crucial question is how well the Modi factor works this time.바카라�

By Ajay Sukumaran in Bangalore