Elections And The Unseen Forces: This Little-Known Bhojpuri Filmmaker Can Change Bihar's Political Script!

The importance of this 40-year-old 바카라�Son of Mallah바카라� in this election could be gauged from the fact that RJD president Laloo Prasad Yadav had declined to spare more than three seats for a big party like the Congress, its erstwhile ally, in the 2009 parliamentary polls. But this time, the RJD distributed 10 of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar without any fuss to its smaller allies. Apart from the VIP바카라�s three seats, Upendra Kushwaha바카라�s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi바카라�s Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular are contesting from five and three seats, respectively.

Laloo or his son Tejashwi Yadav may have done it to keep these regional sat­raps from the extremely backward castes (Sahani), OBCs (Kushwaha) and the mahadalits (Manjhi) in good hum­our to prevent the division of anti-­BJP votes, but will the RJD be able to keep its Mahagathbandhan flock together if May 23 counting throws up a hung House? Since there is no legal bar on the pre-poll allies to switch sides ­depending on the situation바카라�unlike elected representatives bound by the anti-defection law바카라�will a fractured verdict be an open sesame for the smaller parties with no ideological strings attached, especially in big states like Bihar, UP and Maharashtra? After all, they are the ones most vulnerable to the rival camps vying for power regardless of their pre-poll allegiances.

RJD vice-president Shivanand Tiwari does not think so vis-à-vis his party바카라�s allies. 바카라�The Mahagathbandhan represents a strong social combination in Bihar,바카라� he says. 바카라�Sahani, Manjhi and Kushwaha were all with the NDA and joined us after being denied their due. I don바카라�t think they would forget their anger and disappointment with the NDA so soon.바카라� The veteran socialist leader says Sahani had to beg for the rightful due to his fishermen바카라�s community in NDA, but to no avail. 바카라�He now says Lalooji gave him so much that he was able to field his people in a Lok Sabha election,바카라� he adds.

Political pundits, however, believe the loyalty of fringe-outfit leaders cannot be taken for granted. Sahani, for one, started his political career sharing the dais with BJP president Amit Shah in the 2014 polls, and briefly joined hands with Nitish Kumar in 2015 ­before floating his party to join the Mahagathbandhan this time. Others such as Kushwaha and Manjhi have hopped from one alliance to another. An indecisive outcome of the 17th Lok Sabha elections would make the support of even two-three MPs crucial.

Tiwari admits that the smaller allies would be easy targets for poaching if the NDA falls short of majority, but their numbers might still not be enough to form the government, ­unless they win the support of bigger parties led by the likes of Naveen Patnaik, Chandrashekar Rao, Jaganmohan Reddy et al.

But does the BJP also face a similar risk from two of its existing allies, Nitish Kumar바카라�s JD-U and Ram Vilas Paswan바카라�s Lok Janshakti Party, after the results? Paswan, whose party is contesting six seats in Bihar, has been firmly behind Narendra Modi lately, but given his track record, Laloo still refers to him as an inveterate 바카라�mausam vaigyanik바카라� (weatherman), who can switch sides as per his convenience. As for Nitish, his party has been seeking votes in Modi바카라�s name, but political obs­ervers are keeping tab on some recent developments within the JD-U. Close on the heels of its minority leader Gulam Rasool Balyawi바카라�s 바카라�personal바카라� ­demand to the BJP to project Nitish as the NDA leader, the JD-U revived its pitch for 바카라�special category바카라� status for Bihar. It fuelled speculation as to whether the JD-U was also bracing for a hung Parliament. Tiwari, however, avers that such tactics won바카라�t work in Nitish바카라�s favour. 바카라�If at all the RSS and the BJP have to look for Modi바카라�s rep­lacement due to allies바카라� pressure after the results, they will prefer someone like Nitin Gadkari. Why on earth will they pick someone like Nitish who has lost all credibility?바카라� he asks.

JD-U leader Neeraj Kumar, however, scotches such speculation. 바카라�We are seeking the mandate in the name of Modi as PM,바카라� he says. 바카라�We are nowhere in the race for prime ministership.바카라�

According to Neeraj, the NDA allies would remain united, but the Mahagathbandhan will flounder soon because of the RJD바카라�s big brotherly attitude. 바카라�Lalooji and Tejashwi have issued open letters asking people to vote for the RJD, not for the Mahagatha­bandhan,바카라� he points out. 바카라�Their allies are also not sharing the stage.바카라� The JD-U leader claims the RJD failed to get its votes transferred to its allies in the ongoing polls. 바카라�Why should its allies stay if they don바카라�t get the RJD바카라�s votes transferred to them?바카라� he asks.

In neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the BJP바카라�which won 71 seats, and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) two, out of the total 80 in 2014바카라�continued its winning streak in the 2017 assembly polls. The crucial question in this election is whether the small parties will alter the power balance or swing the elections post-May 23. The NDA has been wooing dominant castes such as Kurmis, Sainis, Jats, Nishads and Valmikis that have strong influence in multiple constituencies. As UP is home to a wide caste net of Brahmins, Yadavs, Jats, Kushwahas, Kurmi, Jatav and non-Jatav Dalits, besides OBCs, Muslims and Christians, the state also accounts for over 600 minor parties, mostly based on castes. The BJP, however, faced its first challenge last December after the alliance between Samajwadi Party and the BSP went on to taste success in the bypolls.

In a three-pronged battle this time among the state바카라�s main players바카라�the BJP, the Congress and the SP-BSP-RLD combine바카라�small parties are also flexing their muscles. The 2014 and 2017 polls had brought some into prominence after they sprang unprecedented surprises, forcing the main players to bargain a pre-poll alliance with them. One of the main BJP allies바카라�the Kurmi-based Apna Dal (Sonelal), whose leader Anupriya Patel is a Union minister in the NDA government바카라�is contesting for two Lok Sabha seats and had bagged nine seats in the 2017 assembly polls with a vote share of 0.99 per cent.

바카라�Small parties decide the mandate when there are many caste combinations,바카라� says Arvind Sharma of Apna Dal, who claims his party played a decisive role in the BJP바카라�s 2014 win and will continue as a BJP ally even if the NDA fails to notch up a majority on May 23. 바카라�Our support base of Kurmis comprises 12 per cent of UP바카라�s electorate바카라�larger than Yadavs and directly affecting 15 Lok Sabha seat in the Purvanchal region.바카라�

Political strategists say small parties have the potential to make or break a government or an alliance this time. 바카라�After May 23, they will definitely play hard ball,바카라� says JNU sociologist Surinder S. Jodhka. 바카라�The small parties offer a political market, they have a supply of votes and there are people who buy it. They are pragmatic and usually don바카라�t adopt any ideological position. Identity politics is all about representation for them.바카라�

The switching over of the Nishad party바카라�a former ally of the SP-BSP바카라�to the BJP camp just before the polls demonstrates how small parties try to be game-changers in the competitive political game. Founded by Sanjay Nishad in 2016, the party got 0.67 per cent votes in the 2017 assembly polls and won one seat. His son Praveen Nishad, who wrested Gorakhpur seat from the BJP for the SP in the bypolls, is contesting from Sant Kabir Nagar as a BJP candidate this time. With its sizeable chunk of fisherfolk votes scattered across many seats, the BJP is hoping to make inroads in the state. 바카라�SP won Gorakhpur because of the Nishad party, but didn바카라�t give us any recognition or seats this time. Both the SP and the BSP don바카라�t allow any other party to grow,바카라� says Sanjay Nishad. 바카라�We will decide the next course of act­ion after the results, but even if the NDA fails to cross the mark, we will still stay with the state government.바카라�

Though the BJP could muster support from a few caste parties to counter the SP-BSP, it has also upset strong allies like the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, which commands considerable influence among the Rajbhar community. The SBSP broke ties with the BJP after it refused to concede seats. With four seats in the 2017 assembly polls, Rajbhar says his party can upset the BJP in many seats. 바카라�We have 50,000-1 lakh supporters in many constituencies,바카라� says Rajbhar, adding that his party will decide the future course after the results.

While OBCs account for 44 per cent of UP바카라�s electorate, Dalits 23 per cent and Muslims 18 per cent, Jodhka says the spurt in the number of caste parties points to identity assertion and the dec­line of secular politics. 바카라�It바카라�s also the disillusionment with the main parties. Caste is a cover for aspirational identity politics바카라�identity mobilised in the democratic space,바카라� he says, adding that it바카라�s unfair to call them vote-cutters.

With the SP-BSP enjoying the RJD바카라�s support, the Congress has teamed up with Apna Dal led by Krishna Patel, Mahan Dal and the Jan Adhikar Party, hoping to garner support from the OBC communities of Kurmis, Kushwaha, Mauryas and Shakyas. Another party hard to ignore, is the Pragitisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia), founded by SP rebel and Mulayam Singh Yadav바카라�s brother Shivpal Yadav. With a support base among cadres, PSP(L) may upset the SP in some seats, say analysts. It has already partnered with the Peace Party and the Apna Dal (K). 바카라�This election is important for small parties and we will support any political formation other than the BJP,바카라� says Peace Party founder Dr Mohammad Ayub, adding that the SP-BSP failed to accommodate the interest of small parties. Founded in 2008, the party held promise for Pasmanda Muslims and other backward communities, and bagged four seats in the 2012 assembly polls, but failed to keep up the momentum.

In Maharashtra, a high point for the Congress and the NCP was the coming together of 56 political and social org­anisations, signifying the importance of tacit or open support of smaller political parties. While the two parties have worked more for bringing regional parties such as the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) and Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathana into their fold, the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance seems to be going solo except for defected members from other parties such as Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil.

바카라�When we contested the last couple of times, we realised that the splitting of votes between us and the Congress or NCP had actually benefited the right-wing forces,바카라� says PWP general secretary Jayant Patil. 바카라�We wanted to end the authoritarian rule of the past few years and decided to support the alliance without any conditions. Our party workers campaigned for their candidates. In places like Parbhani and Solapur, our voter base of over a lakh will definitely benefit the Congress-NCP alliance, which may get 28 out of the 48 seats in the state.바카라�

While smaller parties with similar ideologies have stuck together and the Republican Party of India (Athawale) has continued its alliance with the Sena-BJP, it is Raj Thackeray바카라�s MNS that has added a twist, moving from end­orsing Modi in 2014 to campaigning against him in 2019. There is the newly formed Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi floated by Prakash Ambedkar, which has formed a separate front with parties such as the AIMIM. Experts say they might unintentionally end up helping the Sena-BJP by splitting votes.

By Giridhar Jha and Preetha Nair with Prachi Pinglay-Plumber in Mumbai