Saffron Rides ­바카라�Cashless바카라� Into Caste-Cow Land

The Yadav family feud, especially the conspicuous bitterness between father and son, has given the BJP an opportunity to take some sheen off Akhilesh바카라�s 바카라�good boy바카라� image by invoking the comparison with Aurangzeb, who had confined his father at Agra Fort in the battle of thrones. While political circles buzz with conspiracy theories about the cause of the rift, the BJP has pulled out all the stops in playing it to the gallery. A unified Samajwadi Party (SP), with Akhilesh firmly at the helm, would be a formidable force for the BJP to contend with. And if the much talked about SP-Congress tie-up happens, the BJP knows it will have something to worry about.

Not the one to underestimate a political rival, BJP president Amit Shah went on record four months ago, claiming his party바카라�s main fight was with the SP, though he was not writing off Mayawati바카라�s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Shah has been working in the state for the past two years, micromanaging things and laying the booth-level groundwork for elections. Now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leading the campaign in the state, talking of development and the government바카라�s pro-poor policies.

The BJP바카라�s national spokesperson and pollster G.V.L. Narasimha Rao says the party바카라�s strategy will be to project 바카라�transformational governance바카라� in UP, in tandem with the PM바카라�s delivery of 바카라�pro-poor governance바카라�. 바카라�The election is increasingly turning into a Modi-versus-none battle, promising a repeat of 2014 (Lok Sabha elections), this time on the strength of a demonetisation-propelled wave.바카라�

A party general secretary, who did not want to be identified, agrees that Modi and demonetisation have completely changed the political narrative. 바카라�In an electorally complex state like UP, where caste and religion play a predominant role, demonetisation has created a new parameter바카라�that of class,바카라� he says. 바카라�The caste differential has receded to the background, with the narrative of ­the honest-poor versus the corrupt-rich becoming stronger. The poor, cutting across castes, are feeling a sense of ­empowerment. They feel the rich have been taught a lesson.바카라�

So, the focus of the party바카라�s campaign is going to be Modi and his bold moves like demonetisation and surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which also strengthens the party바카라�s ­nationalist credentials.

For the BJP, the battle for the most populous state is about more than just winning. The party바카라�s prestige is at stake. Though the Ram temple may not be an issue anymore, the metaphor of Lord Ram바카라�s 14-year vanvaas (exile) is being used frequently by party leaders after Modi mentioned it at his January 2 Parivartan rally in Lucknow. 바카라�The BJP will end 14 years of vanvaas in UP,바카라� Modi had said, addressing the massive rally at Ramabhai Ambedkar ground. It has been 14 years since BJP lost power in 2002.

Also, the 2014 Lok Sabha election set the benchmark high for the party when it won 71 out of 80 seats, with its highest ever vote share of 42 per cent. Party leaders acknowledge that maintaining the vote share in assembly elections is almost impossible, but are confident they will win UP this time. 바카라�Our highest vote share in the UP assembly polls was 33 per cent in 1991, mainly because of the Ayodhya movement,바카라� says a party leader from the state. 바카라�This time we will definitely surpass it by riding the ­demonetisation wave.바카라�

While many BJP leaders feel that ­keeping the focus on demonetisation and projecting the PM as a crusader against corruption has created a Modi wave all over again, which will make the elections a cakewalk for the party, Modi has been more cautious. Addressing the BJP바카라�s national executive on January 7, Modi is believed to have said that merely a hawa or a wave won바카라�t suffice; it has to be foc­used in the right direction. 바카라�Jitna bhi toofan ho, hawa tyre mein nahin jayegi. Usse bharna padega (no matter how strong the wind, the tyre won바카라�t fill up on its own; it will have to be filled),바카라� he said.

For now, the BJP leaders are busy filling up the tyre. Their overwhelming refrain that the party will sweep the elections, winning over 300 of the total 403 seats. Outlook spoke to several of them to get a sense of what the party is planning for its UP campaign and how it is being managed. From these conversations, it ­becomes app­arent that the BJP may well leave nothing바카라�from wooing Yadavs and Dalits to polarisation on community lines바카라�out of its agenda in order to beef up its vote share.

바카라�Modiji바카라�s message at the Moradabad rally, urging Jan Dhan account holders to keep the money deposited in their accounts by black money hoarders, has gone down well with people on the ground,바카라� says a BJP leader. 바카라�We believe that a large number of these account holders are Dalits, who have been used by the BSP to clean its money. Post-demonisation, a sizable number of Dalits may shift to the BJP, denting the BSP vote bank.바카라�

The BJP also plans to poach on the SP바카라�s Yadav vote bank. A BJP leader from UP talks about a strong 바카라�thana culture바카라� in the state, where clout with the local bahubali (strongman)바카라�generally the local politician who has much influence at the police station바카라�is much sought after. 바카라�There is a growing sense among the Yadavs that whenever there is a conflict with the Muslims, the thana tends to favour the Muslims. They feel that the Samajwadi Party is trying too hard to woo Muslims,바카라� he says. 바카라�We are trying to tap this sentiment.바카라�

BJP state president Keshav Maurya is confident of bagging 40 per cent of the Yadav votes. 바카라�Mulayam and his family should not consider the Yadavs as their jaagir (fiefdom). And what exactly have they done for the Yadavs?바카라� he asks. 바카라�And just as the SP had done nothing for Yadavs, the BSP had done little for improving the lives of Dalits and OBCs. The field is wide open for us and we will win 300 seats.바카라�

바카라�You will see 바카라�sabka saath, sabka vikas바카라� in the real sense. We will follow this motto announced by Modiji at every level. It will reflect in the ticket ­distribution as well,바카라� he adds, hinting that Yadavs and Dalits will get a fair share. It is evident that the party is ­trying to shed its image of being dominated by the upper castes.

Interestingly, in its assessment of its chances in the UP polls, the party seems to have reconciled with바카라�and factored in바카라�the fact that the Muslims won바카라�t vote for the BJP. 바카라�We have more or less given up on the 18 per cent Muslim votes in the state,바카라� admits a central BJP leader. 바카라�The ground reports are not very encouraging as far as Muslim voters are concerned. At best, we can try to gain electoral ­dividends through some communal ­polarisa­t­ion, especially in western UP and other parts of the state with a substantial Muslim population.바카라�

In that case, observers expect more statements from 바카라�saffron바카라� politicians like Sakshi Maharaj, who recently got into trouble with the Election Commission of India for his communal remark at a sant sammelan in Meerut. The Unnao MP blamed 바카라�those with four wives and 40 children바카라� for population explosion.  Earlier, Union minister Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti had compared Akhilesh to Aurangzeb. 바카라�For the BJP, the Ram temple and Hindutva are not real ­issues, but are definitely useful as distractions and to keep its core vote bank ­intact,바카라� the central leader tells Outlook.