Iran In Trouble After The Fall Of Assad?

In Iran, the sight of a woman바카라�s hair in public invites, besides imprisonment, corporal punishment sanctioned by the law바카라�sometimes leading to feminicide such as that of Jina Mahsa Amini. A 22-year-old Kurdish woman, Amini was allegedly beaten to death in Tehran on September 16, 2022, by the Guidance Patrol, the morality police that had accused her of not hiding her hair 바카라�properly바카라� under the hijab (Islamic headscarf) in accordance with the Islamic Republic바카라�s legal standards.

Amini바카라�s custodial death triggered the resurrection of Iran바카라�s indigenous feminist movement after supporters of the Kurdish freedom movement took to the streets in the Persian-speaking-Shia-dominated country that has different laws for men and women causing Iranian critics of the Ayatollah바카라�s regime to famously call the system 바카라�gender apartheid바카라�. The protestors picked up a Kurdish slogan바카라�바카라�Jin, Jiyan, Azadi바카라� (woman, life, freedom)바카라�coined by the movement led by the outlawed Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK) in Turkey to summarise the ideology systematised by PKK co-founder Abdullah Ocalan in his legal defence documents penned in his one-man prison on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara where he has been held since 1999 after being forced to leave Syria the previous year.

Many like Mohammadi were arrested during the protests, including journalists Niloofar Hamedi and Elaheh Mohammadi (for their reporting on the protests in September 2022), who were released just before her. 바카라�People in Iran continue to endure the devastating consequences of the authorities바카라� brutal crackdown on the 바카라�Woman, Life, Freedom바카라� uprising amid systematic impunity for crimes under international law,바카라� Amnesty International noted in September this year. Iranian activists say the grave human rights violations by the authorities and their crimes under international law have not been investigated impartially. In fact, the authorities have only doubled down on enforcement of the compulsory veiling laws as well as the death penalty to silence dissent.

Despite the crackdown, 바카라�the movement worked like a solidarity network,바카라� says Tehran-based journalist and researcher Shima Vezvaei, who has advocated for the rights of women, children and migrants for the past 10 years. 바카라�None of the many uprisings in Iran in the past 15 years worked like the 바카라�Woman, Life, Freedom바카라� movement, which was the first to be centered around liberation. It brought marginalised communities together to demand radical changes in all aspects of life and push for tangible political change. Going beyond bodily autonomy and freedom of choice in clothing, it changed the discourse of women바카라�s rights regarding political participation and resisting all forms of gender-based violence. The patriarchal norms are no longer taken for granted.바카라�

Indeed, a few days after pushing for a stricter hijab law, the regime paused it in early December as 바카라�not feasible at the moment바카라�. Iran바카라�s 바카라�pro-reform바카라� president Masoud Pezeshkian, too, had rejected the penalties proposed in the bill. Even some religious leaders said it could encourage 바카라�anti-religious sentiment바카라�. The bill envisaged fines of $800 for the first offence, $1,500 for the second and 15 years in prison for the third. Celebrities and public figures could have eight per cent of their net worth confiscated, while businesses could face fines and shutdowns for serving women not wearing a headscarf. 

Another factor that brought down the bill was the fall of the Baathist Arab regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria despite the Islamic Republic of Iran바카라�s efforts to prop it up against the uprising that began in 2011. This big blow to its foreign policy, coupled with the huge setbacks faced in the past year or so of war by both Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shiite outfit directly controlled from Tehran, and the Palestine-based Islamist resistance group Hamas, left the regime in Tehran too vulnerable to weather another storm on the domestic front.

As Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist paramilitary organisation formed in 2017 with the coming together of several such older armed outfits involved in the Syrian civil war such as Jaysh al-Ahrar, a faction of Ahrar al-Sham, took over the Syrian capital Damascus, on December 8, the regime in Iran found itself at its lowest ebb. Iran바카라�s Islamic Republic had in partnership with Assad바카라�s Baathist Arab regime built what they call an 바카라�axis of resistance바카라� against Israel involving a coalition of West Asian paramilitary outfits such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi (or Ansar Allah), a Zaydi Shiite organisation that emerged in Yemen in the 1990s.

While the Islamic Republic바카라�s 바카라�supreme leader바카라� Ali Khamenei had vowed to 바카라�end the Israeli occupation바카라� of Palestine by 2040, this 바카라�axis바카라� had helped the regime project its authority as far as the Mediterranean. With the fall of Assad, Iran lost an important geographical link that allowed it to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.바카라� The militias in Iraq and Yemen are not strategically important in the offensive against Israel, with the Houthis posing a greater threat to Saudi Arabia than to Israel and the West. 

바카라�Hamas is badly battered in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon,바카라� says Alvite Ningthoujam, assistant professor at Pune바카라�s Symbiosis School of International Studies. 바카라�Despite its military capabilities including the use of missiles and drones, Hezbollah바카라�s strategic depth has majorly waned with the assassination of its third secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and other leaders. With Assad falling without much resistance, the strategic depth Iran had been flexing for years, with very resolute proxies spread across the region, is coming up for a challenge now.바카라� 

In the backdrop of these foreign policy setbacks, the Iranian regime is also facing people바카라�s resistance against proposed hikes in petrol prices, slow economic growth and the growing number of judicial executions. The proposed hijab law could have exacerbated the situation. For the 85-year-old 바카라�supreme leader바카라� ruling Iran since 1989, the conditions have never been worse and the discontent, even among the champions of the regime, is at its peak. President Pezeshkian is facing pressure to demonstrate what reforms he has introduced. Human rights groups believe the number of executions has not come down. In 2024 alone, 798 people were executed. 

On the economic front, the Iranian rial is officially one of the least-valued currencies in the world. Economic sanctions, unemployment, poverty and malnutrition are huge issues. Most citizens want the government to focus on fixing internal issues and are, therefore, sceptical of its ambitious foreign policy. It was in the face of many such challenges at home that a reformist president was appointed, hoping he would prioritise stability and economic well-being. However, people today doubt whether the country is anywhere closer to either goal. Pezeshkian did reach out to the US and European countries on nuclear matters, besides talking of economic cooperation, but didn바카라�t find much success with many blaming Israel for aiming to prevent Iran바카라�s engagement with the US. 

The main centre of authority, however, remains with the 바카라�supreme leader바카라�, widely acknowledged as a very conservative force. He looks very frail though and finding a successor would likely be a challenge. 바카라�With an ailing supreme leader and an unsuccessful president, Iran is a geopolitical wreck,바카라� says former diplomat Talmiz Ahmad, an expert on West Asian affairs. 바카라�Iran is also facing other serious social and cultural issues. Hijab and safeguarding the 1979 Revolution바카라�s Islamic identity have been the priorities despite their utter irrelevance in world affairs today. This has alienated large sections of people at home and abroad. The regime바카라�s base of support has narrowed down.바카라�

According to Ningthoujam, the pressure of economic sanctions on people바카라�s lives has made the moderates believe it바카라�s time to consider national development over interference in the affairs of other countries. A 2018 report of the US State Department stated that Iran had paid Assad $14 billion since 2011, while independent observers peg it at almost $30 billion. Besides supplying arms to Hezbollah and other Islamist outfits in Lebanon, Iran has sent aid worth around $77 million for people affected by the Israeli bombing since Nasrallah바카라�s death in an air strike on September 27 this year. 

The war between Israel and Lebanon was an extension of the ongoing Gaza offensive in which 45,000 Palestinian civilians, mainly women and children, lost their lives so far following the attack on Israel by Hamas October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were reportedly killed and many taken hostage.

The History Of Iran바카라�s Conflict With Israel 

Though the Iranian groups opposed to the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi바카라�s regime had already established ties with the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and received military training from the PLO militants, Iran바카라�s state support for the Palestinian movement began only after the Shah was deposed in 1979 and the Islamic Republic established under its first 바카라�supreme leader바카라� Ayatollah Khomeini. 바카라�Khomeini based his politics on two things: Shiite Islam and support for the oppressed. Supporting Palestine and opposing Israel were a part of the revolution바카라�s identity,바카라� says former diplomat Ahmad. 

For politicians in Iran, Israel바카라�s war on Palestinians strengthens the narrative of resistance against 바카라�Zionism and colonialism바카라� across the region, which is reflected also in growing political engagement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. 바카라�As Iran바카라�s support for Palestinians resonates well with the citizens of Arab-majority countries despite their past differences with Iran, 바카라�normalisation바카라� with Israel will be on the back burner,바카라� says Ahmad. 바카라�Iran바카라�s engagement with Saudi Arabia will persist. The shock across the Arab world due to the devastation of Palestine will prevent the regimes from being too cozy with Israel, at least not overtly.바카라�바카라�

According to both Ahmad and Ningthoujam, the return of Donald J. Trump, a staunch ally of Benjamin Netanyahu and opponent of Iran, as President of the United States of America also poses a big challenge. Trump recently said he is 바카라�weighing options to stop Iran from being able to build nuclear weapons바카라�바카라�, signalling sanctions and diplomacy might not be enough and hinting at the possibility of preventive air strikes. 바카라�The only thing that might work in favour of Iran is that바카라�it still holds the card of its nuclear programme,바카라� says Ningthoujam.

The USA바카라�s support to Israel despite the unparalleled destruction of life and property in Gaza continues to be a cementing factor for the Muslims of the world in general, and on Iran바카라�s call, for the Shias in particular. In fact, even the Iranians opposing their government support its stand on Gaza and the 바카라�liberation of Palestine바카라�. 바카라�Of course, I support Palestinian liberation just like all the world바카라�s free and progressive people and collectives who are now demanding an end to the bloodshed and wars worldwide,바카라� says Vezvaei.